Everybody loves March Madness, but let's be honest, who amongst us has been following all 363 teams and knows them inside and out? If you're seeking guidance on filling out your bracket and want to win your office pool or take your friends' money, you've come to the right place.
I always wondered how KenPom, the most trusted name in college basketball analytics and forecasting, determined his projected final scores on his FanMatch page.
Through a ton of Google searches — plus some trial and error — I was able to figure out the formula and project out a final score for any Division I college basketball game using each team’s efficiency and tempo numbers.
From there, I use a Pythagorean expectation formula to determine the probability of each team winning based on the projected final score. In the Excel sheet below, you'll be able to figure out each team’s win probability for every possible matchup all the way through the National Championship.
However, there are a couple of important notes that you need to read before using this to fill out your bracket:
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