College hoops weekend betting preview: Big Ten brings some heat

The NFL is done for a while, and the NBA is paused for All-Star weekend so you are out of excuses for not watching a lot of college hoops this weekend

If you are not watching the Olympics, you have to fill your time with something, and there are lots of fun games this weekend. We don't get any super high-profile games, as the powers-that-be just didn't see the likes of Purdue, Auburn or Arizona coming.

Nevertheless, sometimes lower-profile games offer better values so let's take a look at the weekend and pick some spots. 

Friday, February 18

Richmond Spiders vs. VCU Rams
7:00 p.m.
ESPN2
Projected line: Rams -3

Friday was really slim pickings this week as the Big East and Big Ten have only their low-level teams in action. The Rams and Spiders are A-10 programs hoping to do enough to merit at-large bids to the Big Dance. The Rams are just a game behind Davidson in the league thanks to the second-best defense in the conference in league play, but two of their three league losses have been by 20 points or more though so when they are off their game they really struggle. Richmond is further down the league standings and has more work to do. Basically, the Spiders' whole season has been winning the games they are supposed to, but they have just one win as an underdog this season. I don't think they are going to make it two at VCU. They are a safe fade on Friday night. 

Take VCU.

Saturday, February 19

Tennessee Volunteers vs. Arkansas Razorbacks
4:00 p.m. ET
Projected line: Volunteers -1

Tennessee is looking to ride the momentum of its big win over Kentucky into the weekend. Those two teams are tied for second in the SEC behind Auburn at 10-3, with the Razorbacks just behind them at 9-4, so there is a lot at stake in Fayetteville. All three of the Vols' league losses have come on the road, which is why I was a little surprised the metrics still make them a favorite at Arkansas, which just handed a then-top-ranked Auburn team its lone league loss last weekend. The Hogs followed that up with a loss at Alabama last weekend, ending a long winning streak that has seen them zoom up the rankings. I like this Arkansas team a lot even though it does not shoot it very well from deep. With Tennessee's road troubles and youth at the point guard spot, the Vols are an easy team to fade in this spot. I would not be surprised to see this line flip by tipoff.

Take Arkansas (up to -3)

Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Texas Longhorns
12:30 p.m. ET

Projected Line: Longhorns -2

At the beginning of the month, the Red Raiders hosted former coach Chris Beard and the Longhorns, beating them by 13 points in a game they took control of early. This weekend they are visiting Austin, looking to add another big win to their recent sweep of Baylor, proof positive that they can beat good teams on the road too. Texas lost to that same Baylor team last weekend and only survived its last game against Oklahoma, needing overtime to dispatch the Sooners. Texas only has one loss at home this season though, against Kansas State of all teams, but their style of play leaves the Longhorns open because their offense really struggles at times. They are so enigmatic. Texas Tech is a team that can match their defensive abilities, and that is the main reason we will be on upset watch on Saturday. I still like the value with home side as long as the number stays under a possession, but if it gets to more than that, get ready to flip.

Take Texas.

Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Michigan State Spartans
12:00 p.m. ET
ESPN
Projected line: Spartans -1

The Big Ten is tight at the top. Illinois is one of four teams with four losses, and Michigan State has five so this game will help determine which team takes the crown. Both of these squads are in the top five in offensive and defensive efficiency in the league, and when they met at Illinois last month the home side got a 56-55 victory. Kofi Cockburn did not play in that game though, and he is a huge difference-maker for Illinois. Point guard Andre Curbelo missed that game for the Illini too, yet they were still able to get the win. Heading out on the road it is not going to be easy, but Illinois is the more talented team. This would be the Illini's best road win so far, and I like their chances a lot. I especially like them in an underdog role.  Michigan State has not impressed me this season. The Spartans are not a pushover, but they are far from elite too. 

Take Illinois.

Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Ohio State Buckeyes
2:30 p.m. ET
FOX
Projected line: Buckeyes -3

Another battle in the Big Ten will take place at Value City Arena in Columbus. Ohio State is one of those teams with four losses, but Iowa, at 7-6, is just looking for a win that will help its at-large bid status. This one is going to be all about the offenses. Iowa is fourth nationally in offensive efficiency, and Ohio State eighth. There is also a fun duel between conference and National Player of the Year candidates Keegan Murray (Iowa) and EJ Liddell (Ohio State). I give Iowa a great chance to pull the upset because the Hawkeyes play fast but do so without turning the ball over. Ohio State is better defensively, but it is marginal. The Hawkeyes will take their chances going shot for shot with nearly anyone. This will definitely be a fun watch. 

Take Iowa. 

Sunday, February 20

Michigan Wolverines vs. Wisconsin Badgers
1:00 p.m. ET
CBS
Projected line: Badgers -3

I know, more Big Ten. The Wolverines have no margin for error thanks to early struggles while Wisconsin is still in the hunt to win the regular-season title. The Badgers are not pretty on offense, but it is more missed shots than missed opportunities because they do not turn the ball over. Guard Johnny Davis is in the conversation for Player of the Year too. He is more of a volume than efficiency guy, but that is because the Badgers need him to be. They are leaning on one player more they normally do. Wisconsin has already taken two losses in Madison against Big Ten opponents so there is no air of invincibility at the Kohl Center. The Badgers' consistency makes them the play though. Michigan has burned/fooled us too many times.

Take Wisconsin.