NCAAB odds, pick: Dayton vs. VCU betting guide for Friday, Feb. 9

Dayton vs. VCU Odds

Friday, Feb. 9, 7 p.m. ET, ESPN2

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NCAAB odds here.

Dayton Flyers

Dayton enters this contest with the A-10’s best offense, and much of that can be attributed to the awesomeness of DaRon Holmes II, the runaway conference Player of the Year favorite and First Team All-American candidate.

Holmes is averaging a robust 22.2 points and 8.0 rebounds in league play while also blocking over two shots per game on the other end of the floor. He can take over games seemingly at will and is hands-down the most dominant player in the A-10.

VCU has its work cut out for it when it comes to stopping Holmes. While the Rams roster a ton of athletes with length, they lack true size up front.

Sophomore Christian Fermin is the closest to a true big that VCU has, and though he’s an excellent shot swatter, questions linger about his ability to defend Holmes in the post and extend out on him when he plays behind the arc.

Holmes is the fulcrum to Dayton’s attack – he can initiate from the elbow, where he's an excellent passer, or he can even bring the dang ball up the floor himself.

The pick-and-roll, though, is where he and the Dayton offense truly shine. The Flyers have multiple ball-handlers – Kobe Elvis, Javon Bennett, Koby Brea and Enoch Cheeks – capable of creating off ball screens, and Holmes is an equally dangerous roller as he is a popper.

So much shooting surrounds Holmes, that even if VCU focuses all its efforts on stopping the stud forward, the Flyers will have plenty of avenues for points. Elvis and Brea are both snipers from deep, and Pitt transfer Nate Santos has been a versatile offensive revelation this season as Holmes’ right-hand man in the frontcourt.

This isn’t a VCU team of old – the Rams don't wreak “havoc” on opposing ball-handlers. Instead, they rely on their considerable length at nearly every position to make shot attempts difficult and opponents uncomfortable.

VCU Rams

If you’re a spot bettor, this is as good of an opportunity as any to back VCU, which should have a lively crowd behind it in an excellent home court environment.

The question will be if the Rams can stop and score against a Dayton team that's looked immortal for much of the season.

A continuance of hot shooting would certainly help. VCU leads the league in 3-point percentage in A-10 play, knocking down over 40% of its long-ball tries.

Dayton packs it in defensively and allows the highest 3-point attempt rate in the conference, meaning VCU has a real chance of pulling off a victory if its multiple shooting weapons are hitting.

But while Dayton does allow opponents to shoot a high rate of 3s, that doesn’t mean it gives up good looks. Dayton’s interior prowess forces opponents into low-percentage outside heaves at the end of shot-clocks, and the Flyers have plenty of ball-hawking guards and wings to contest shots.

Anthony Grant’s teams almost always allow a low conversion rate from deep, even dating back to his days coaching VCU.

Transition will be key for VCU if it can find a way to run on the Flyers. While the tempo stats haven’t been sky-high this season, the Rams do run at a top-75 rate following a defensive rebound (Hoop-Math) and have thrived when they can get out in the open floor.

Per Synergy, VCU ranks in the 87th percentile nationally in points per possession in transition. Of course, Dayton rarely allows transition and is excellent at controlling tempo. The Flyers never over-extend for offensive rebounds and are cognizant about sprinting back to stop transition opportunities.

In the half-court, VCU’s offense is a patient one that involves a plethora of off-ball cutting, drive-and-dumps and drive-and-lob actions to its multiple athletes.

Again, Dayton will be a tough nut to crack with this action given how sound it is defensively, how it tends to pack the paint and how it deploys the soon-to-be A-10 Defensive Player of the Year (that’s Holmes again).

At least the Rams should be fully healthy. Sean Bairstow, a super key fifth-year senior wing, returned last game after missing the previous two with injury.

Dayton vs. VCU

Betting Pick & Prediction

The spot on Friday says VCU, but the matchup and the talent say Dayton. The Flyers aren’t just one of the best mid-majors in college basketball, they’re one of the best teams in college basketball period.

It’s not often you see Dayton as this short of a favorite, especially in conference play.

While the Flyers did fall in the city of Richmond two weeks ago to the Spiders, they’ve proven several times this season that they have the ability to win big games on the road.

Barring a scintillating shooting performance from VCU – not outside the realm of possibilities – it’s hard to see Dayton dropping this game.

Pick: Dayton -2 (Play to -3)