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In his lone season at Arkansas after transferring from Wichita State, Ricky Council IV produced career highs in points (16.1), assists (2.3) and minutes (34.1) as a key cog in the team’s run to the Sweet 16, where they were eventually thwarted by the eventual champions, the UConn Huskies.
Council IV’s successful jump from the AAC to the SEC was crucial in solidifying his status as a NBA prospect, but his swing skill, 3-point shooting, still left more questions than answers. Will his 3-point swing in his favor or sway the other way?
Why could it sway?
Right now, the safe bet is that Council IV won’t be a reliable NBA 3-point shooting threat that holds gravity. It’s an uphill battle that starts and maybe ends with the numbers.
On a career high 3.5 attempts from deep per game this season, the talented wing shot a career low 27% from deep (34-of-126). His 29.6% mark on catch-and-shoot threes (24-of-81) alongside a 19.6% mark on off the dribble threes (9-of-46).
Additionally, Council IV’s 3-point percentage has dropped each year since his freshman freshman campaign at Wichita State, coinciding with an increase in attempts (44% on 27 attempts, 30% on 85 attempts).
When you combine poor shooting numbers with the eye test revealing bad misses, inconsistent mechanics and lift, and some funkiness at the release point, it’s clear why there is doubt and pessimism surrounding Council IV’s 3-point shooting.
Why could it swing?
The eye test also shows two traits that I usually am willing to bet on when projecting shooting: shotmaking versatility and confidence.
Coucill IV is a multi-level shot creator and shotmaker who rarely, if ever, lacks confidence in his shooting. From pull ups, stepbacks to movement and catch and shoot attempts, he’s more than capable of knocking them down and getting hot. I’m certainly no shot doctor, but it's not out of the question that slight tweaks to his mechanics could provide an uptick in consistency.
Specifically from beyond the arc, there are some numbers to be encouraged about. In his two seasons at Wichita State, Council IV launched 112 threes, connecting on 33% of them. That’s a significant sample at a clip that would certainly hold more gravity than his career 30% rate.
It also gives NBA teams a reason to believe his shooting at Arkansas was more of a slight outlier that points more to inconsistency than incapability. His drop in off the dribble three efficiency from his last season at Wichita State (36.8% on 38 attempts) to this season at Arkansas (19.6% on 46 attempts) could further that reasoning as well.
Lastly, free throw numbers are generally a quality supporting indicator of projectable shooting and touch. He shot 79% from the line this season after shooting 84% last season on less attempts, 218 to 106.
Will it swing or sway?
Slightly swing. I’m not expecting Council IV to become a mid or high 30s shooter from distance, but I am buying somewhere in the low 30s, which combined with his shotmaking versatility and confidence, should hold enough gravity to space the floor and open up the rest of his dynamic game.
Equipped with a NBA body and explosive athleticism, Council IV is a shot creator and shotmaker with defense upside that teams should be targeting in the early to mid second round. A strong shooting display during the pre-draft process would give teams something to think about in the late first.
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