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In the rematch of the infamous game from last week, UAB and Temple will meet in the American Athletic Conference Tournament championship game Sunday afternoon.
The Blazers routed the Owls in Philadelphia in a game that made more headlines off the court. Following the result, gambling watchdog company U.S. Integrity alerted casinos of unusual gambling activity from the matchup after the line moved over six points the day of the game.
Now, the two will meet again in Fort Worth, with the winner earning an automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament next week. I like the potential for points in the rematch.
UAB vs Temple Odds
Sunday, March 17, 3:15 p.m. ET, ESPN
| Temple Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
| +6.5 -110 |
139 -110o / -110u |
+220 |
| UAB Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
| -6.5 -110 |
139 -110o / -110u |
-270 |
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NCAAB odds here.
My best is for the total to fly over 139 points at DraftKings, which I would play to 141. I also wouldn’t hate a look at the first-half over, when the teams have fresher legs.
I understand this is a title game, which could lead to a slower pace of play, but there are just too many offensive advantages on both sides in this one.
Starting with UAB, this is a team that lives on shots from inside the arc. The Blazers rank inside the top 120 in the country in percentage of points from 2-pointers and mid-range field-goal percentage against average opponents, according to Haslametrics.com.
This is also the same squad that ranks in the top 50 in near-proximity attempt rate, which leads to multiple holes for Temple defensively. In conference play, only East Carolina ranked worse than the Owls in opponents' 2-point percentage. The defense has improved in this tournament, but it hasn’t from inside the arc.
Florida Atlantic shot 74% on 2-pointers in its loss to Temple in the semifinal round. Temple was able to reach this point in the tournament because Charlotte and FAU shot a combined 6-of-35 from the 3-point line.
Meanwhile, I also like the advantages on the offensive end for the 11-seed team. This is an Owls squad that loves to bomb away from outside, ranking 62nd in the nation in percentage of points scored from 3-pointers.
As long as they have their legs, the Owls should be able to have success against a UAB defense that ranked in the bottom four in the AAC in opponents’ 3-point percentage in the regular season.
If you look back to their semifinal win over South Florida, the Blazers allowed the Bulls to make 15 shots from beyond the arc. I have to think the Owls target that area in the championship game.
The total in the last meeting closed at 141.5, soaring over that mark by 30.5 points. I like the chances for that to happen again here.
Pick: Over 139 (Play to 141)
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