College Football Playoff semifinal storylines

Game of arms: First things first is the quarterback matchup: Notre Dame’s efficient Ian Book pitted against the brawny Clemson freshman Trevor Lawrence. Book boasts the fourth-highest completion percentage in the nation, connecting on 70.4 percent of his passes. Lawrence clocks in at 23^rd, completing about 65 percent of his passes. But the frosh has more yards, 2,606 to Book’s 2,468, and more touchdowns, 24 to Book’s 19. Also, Lawrence has thrown only four interceptions out of his 326 pass attempts. Book has thrown six, but he averages more yards per completion (12.53) and yards per pass attempt (8.81). You know I love a good statistical debate, but for these two it’s going to come down to composure — how they can respectively handle the pressure, both literally from the pass rush and mentally from the gravity of the game. I think Book has the edge when it comes to composure, but Clemson’s D will be bringing the pain for sure.

Prove it or lose it: Clemson cruised through its season schedule, stumbling only once, against Syracuse, while laying significant smack-downs against Florida State, Wake Forest and Louisville. Meanwhile, the Fighting Irish have a little bit more to prove when it comes to the unbeaten argument. Sure, they defeated three ranked teams, including a top-10 Stanford squad, but neither the Cardinal nor Michigan and Virginia Tech panned out this year, leaving many wondering what the Irish are really made of. Fun fact: Five of Notre Dame’s games were decided by eight points or fewer, showing that the Irish know how to fight. But is it enough to overcome the 12.5 points Clemson is favored by? The chip on Brian Kelly and Co.’s shoulders would argue yes. Notre Dame’s signature win over the Wolverines does look a lot better than the Tigers' four-point victory over Texas A&M. Just saying…

Run support: The biggest question facing Notre Dame is whether or not Book can get some help from the run game, namely from senior running back Dexter Williams. Clemson’s run defense allows just 2.4 yards per carry and only two teams were able to run more than 150 yards against the Tigers. But Williams has been successful this year, despite sitting out the first four games — he rushed for 941 yards off of 142 carries for 12 touchdowns. He put up over 200 yards against Florida State and averaged 10.5 yards per carry against Virginia Tech. But Clemson doesn’t just plug holes. This team takes down QB’s — the Tigers finished third in the nation in sacks (46) and second in tackles for a loss, averaging almost 10 per game. Notre Dame might catch a break though if Clemson loses defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence to a positive drug test. 

Six degrees of separation: These two teams have some Kevin Bacon-level connections — both Clemson and Notre Dame have played four of the same teams. And while comparing respective performances against the same opponent may seem like a good litmus test, those who know and love college football this year understand it isn’t that simple. But let's do it anyway. Clemson barely beat Syracuse, handled Pittsburgh and destroyed Wake Forest and Florida State. Conversely, Notre Dame barely beat Pitt, handled Wake Forest and destroyed Syracuse and Florida State. So both teams beat up on the Seminoles — Clemson put up 59 points and 524 yards of offense while Notre Dame scored 42 points and racked up 495 offensive yards. The difference was on defense. The Tigers gave up 75 yards and three points less to FSU than the Fighting Irish did. They also committed less turnovers, which will definitely be a factor in this Cotton Bowl game.

Orange Bowl semifinal - No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Oklahoma

Game of arms: This quarterback showdown is slightly more epic than the aforementioned battle in the Cotton Bowl. OK, a lot more than slightly. Oklahoma’s Heisman winner Kyler Murray vs. Alabama’s golden boy Tua Tagovailoa; battle to the death. But there are questions — like can Murray score more points than his defense allows, or will Tagovailoa’s ankle be ready to go? Tua’s injury is the less pressing issue, with Jalen Hurts ready and waiting in the wings. Barring any national disaster, Bama’s offense should be fine. Which leaves Kyler and the weight of an entire defense on his shoulders. Fact: Murray has thrown for 300 yards in all but four games this season; he has rushed for over 60 yards in all but five. He has thrown for 4,053 yards and 40 touchdowns, with only seven interceptions. In fact, he leads the nation in passing efficiency, points responsible for and yards per pass attempt. Murray is athletic and a gamer. But then again, so is Tua. The sophomore QB threw for 3,353 yards and 37 touchdowns this season with only four interceptions. And he leads the nation in passing yards per completion with 16.85, proving that the Tide doesn’t just beat you, but they do it swiftly and with many yards at a time.

Prove it or lose it: Alabama’s place at the top of the food chain is secure, and no one is arguing its dominance. A perfect record and a signature win over Georgia will do that. But Oklahoma’s path was certainly less conventional. The Sooners lost to Texas, they gave up 47 points to Oklahoma State and they rank 109^th in total defense and 128^th in passing defense. But the CFP gods granted them leniency, due in large part to a 39-27 redemption victory over Texas in the Big-12 Championship. Kyler Murray hadn’t even won the Heisman yet, but the committee (and Colin Cowherd) saw something in Oklahoma that others didn’t: a glimmer of hope that the Sooners could be more than just a team that holds its own in shootouts. But can Lincoln Riley utilize the underdog edge to turn the Tide? 

Run support: For Oklahoma to beat Alabama, Murray is going to have to run for his life. As is Trey Sermon. As is Kennedy Brooks. Oklahoma will have to establish a run game against the Tide. As a team, the Sooners have rushed for 3,301 yards this season, averaging 6.7 yards per rush. To beat Alabama, Oklahoma is going to need to get the run game into play, keeping Bama’s line and LBs on their toes. If Riley can knock Nick Saban’s defense off balance and keep it guessing, there might be some light at the end of the 14-point underdog tunnel. Fun fact: Alabama gives up an average of only 14.85 points and 77 rushing yards per game.

Six degrees of championships: Since these two teams share no common opponents, this storyline is going to focus on the fact that Saban has won six national titles, which is more than all other active college football coaches. It also ties legendary Bama coach Bear Bryant, who won six national championships with the Tide in 1961, 1964, 1965, 1973, 1978 and 1979. But Saban won his six in half the time it took Bryant. In fact, Saban’s 81.8 winning percentage is on pace to break the SEC record set by Tennessee’s Gen. Robert Neyland (78.7 percent). Looking at what Saban has accomplished might literally set your brain on fire, whether you like him or not. Fun fact: Each game Alabama has played since 2010 has had national title implications.