Should Bucs Be Concerned About Baker Mayfield’s Durabilty?

Baker Mayfield has started 86 of the 89 games he’s played in during his six-year NFL career. That makes him one of the most reliable QBs despite being one the league’s smaller starters.

In fact, he didn’t miss a start due to injury during his first three seasons in the league. Mayfield led Cleveland to a 10-6 record and a playoff win at Pittsburgh in the 2020 season, which was his third year in the league, before injuries interfered with his performance and the Browns’ level of success in 2021.

In 2021, Mayfield missed one game after testing positive for COVID-19 and two other games due to a labrum injury in his left shoulder. Mayfield went 6-8 as a starter that year, throwing 17 touchdowns and 13 interceptions after posting a career-best 26 TDs and just eight INTs the year before in 2020.

That statistical downturn led the Browns organization to pursue a trade for Houston’s Deshaun Watson and Cleveland traded the first overall pick in the 2018 draft to Carolina in the summer of 2022.

In 2022 with Carolina, Mayfield missed three games with an ankle sprain before being benched and later waived later in the season at his request. He started six of the seven games he played in with the Panthers, going 1-5 as a starter. After being picked up on waivers by Los Angeles, Mayfield started four of five games with the Rams and went 1-3 as a starter.

In 2023, Mayfield dealt with knee, ankle, thumb and rib injuries but did not miss a single game in his first season in Tampa Bay. He started all 17 games for the Bucs, and only missed a couple of snaps at Indianapolis after injuring his knee on a QB sneak on the first drive of the game before returning to action.

Granted, Mayfield’s performance was effected by some of his injuries during the season. Most notably at Carolina where he was dealing with a rib injury and then reinjured his knee after being sacked. The Bucs failed to score a touchdown in a 9-0 win, but Mayfield completed 20-of-32 passes for only 137 yards and had three potential interceptions dropped by Panthers defenders.

Nevertheless, Mayfield’s grit and determination won out as the Bucs defeated their division rival and won the team’s third straight NFC South championship in Week 18.

Part of the reason for the Bucs being atop the NFC South for so long is the fact that Tampa Bay has had superior starting quarterback talent dating back to 2020, but also the fact that the Bucs’ starting QB has not missed a single start over that span.

QB Health Has Been The Primary Reason Bucs Continue To Win The NFC South

It was quite remarkable that Tom Brady continued to be incredibly durable into his early 40s. Arriving in Tampa Bay in free agency at age 42 in 2020, Brady helped the Bucs win Super Bowl LV despite playing with a knee injury the entire season. Brady played through pain and discomfort and didn’t miss a single start as the Bucs went 11-6 and won the second Super Bowl in franchise history that season.

After having postseason surgery on his knee in 2021, Brady led the Bucs to their first of three straight NFC South titles with a franchise-record 12 wins and never missed a start. The next year at age 45, Brady would play his last season in the NFL as the Bucs won back-to-back division championships.

Brady would end his Tampa Bay career starting all 50 regular season games over his three years with the Bucs, finishing with a 32-18 record. He also started all seven Bucs playoff games from 2020-22, going 5-2 as a starter during that span.

Baker Mayfield continued that trend with 19 starts out of 19 games last year in his first season in Tampa Bay, finishing with a 10-9 record.

Meanwhile, Carolina has won just 19 games over the last four years dating back to 2020. And the Panthers have started six different quarterbacks over the last four seasons – some due to injury and some due to ineffectiveness.

New Orleans was the last team to win the NFC South back in 2020 during Drew Brees’ final NFL season. Over the last four years, the Saints have started seven different quarterbacks due to either injury or ineffectiveness, which is a big reason why they haven’t made the playoffs over the past three seasons.

Matt Ryan made the Falcons a dangerous team in his prime with six playoff appearances, two division titles and a Super Bowl appearance during his 14-year run as Atlanta’s starter. Ryan’s last year in Atlanta was in 2022, and since 2020 the Falcons have started four different quarterbacks. That, and Ryan’s decline during the 2020 and 2021 seasons, are the reasons why Atlanta is currently in a six-year playoff drought.

If the Bucs do re-sign Baker Mayfield, who turns 29 in April and is expected to have multiple suitors in free agency, to a lucrative extension this offseason they’ll cross their fingers and hope that he remains durable through the duration of his contract. But judging by Mayfield’s history of battling through injuries, his durability shouldn’t be a huge concern even as he edges closer to age 30.