NASCAR at New Hampshire odds and picks, Sat., 7/16: 3 expert predictions for Xfinity Series Crayon 200

It's been a couple of weeks since we've had an opportunity to write about the Xfinity Series. These guys are an absolute nightmare to handicap, but let's do it anyway. John Hyslop talked about bridging the gambling gap between Friday and the weekend, so these moves can keep you going when his Saturday early MLB slate hits all their strikeout totals in the first inning.

NASCAR Xfinity Crayon 200 Start Time, Where To Watch, and Odds

• Date: July 16, 2022
• Start Time: 2:30 p.m. ET
• Where to Watch: USA

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NASCAR Xfinity Crayon 200 Predictions

New Hampshire Speedway is a 1.058-mile circuit with very flat banking. It compares favorably to Richmond and Phoenix. We'll be using those two tracks, along with New Hampshire historical data to find out where the bookmakers have some weaknesses this weekend. Crayons and M&M's have a lot in common. First, they are both big-time sponsors in NASCAR. M&M's are regularly found on Kyle Busch's No. 18 in the Cup Series, and Crayons seem to be sponsoring this race. Not any particular brand, just crayons. Those two products may taste the same no matter the color, but there are better sides than others in the head-to-head matchups that the books have put out there for us.

NASCAR Xfinity Crayon 200 Best Bets

Trevor Bayne to finish better than AJ Allmendinger (-125) (Bet $125 to win $100)

*Odds available at Draftkings at time of publishing*

Bayne is wheeling the No. 18 this weekend for Joe Gibbs Racing, who have been very fast at Loudon historically. Last year, Gibbs driver Christopher Bell schooled the Xfinity kids and walked away with the win... Just like he did in 2018 and 2019. Bayne's team matches up well with this layout. Bayne also finished fourth at Phoenix and second at Nashville in 2022. Although Nashville isn't technically a comparable track, you can squint your eyes really hard and make it feel relevant.

"The Dinger" has seen his Kaulig team take a huge step backward overall in 2022. He finished 12th in 2021, but notably struggled on the long green flag runs with tire wear. Allmendinger is a big name that we can fade at a nice price point this weekend.

Bayne's driver rating over the course of our dataset is 119.15, while Allmendinger checks in at 105.43. Bayne averages 28.3 fast laps compared to Dinger's 8.5. This looks like an awesome spot to back Bayne.

Ty Gibbs to finish better than Noah Gragson (-135) (Bet $135 to win $100)

*Odds available at Draftkings at time of publishing*

We had this matchup ready to fire at -120, and I'm just a slow writer. That's on me. I've learned from Slop that it takes a big man to admit when he's wrong. We let 15 cents get away, and I won't let it happen again. The good news though, is they haven't priced us out.

We're once again backing the Gibbs team, but even more so by taking a guy named Gibbs. He faces off against Xfinity Villain, Noah Gragson. Gragson is a supremely talented guy but has problems using good judgment. He intentionally wrecked a driver at the road course two weeks ago that causing huge damage for a lot of small teams. This dude is public enemy No. 1 right now. This is also Gragson's least favorite track. His words to our ears, and it's a beautiful thing.

Gragson finished 14th in the 2021 edition, but Gibbs did not race. His No. 54 car was doing doughnuts with a checkered flag out the window though. In our metrics, Gibbs has led an average of 39.3 laps per contest, while Gragson leads 28.3. Gibbs has spent 93.1% of the races in the top 15, while Gragson is a worse 77.4%. Their average finishes also give the nod to Gibbs (3.7) over Gragson (12.3). Gibbs is the only choice. Play to -140.

William Byron to win (+275) (Bet $100 to win $275)

Oh wow, we're really going out on a limb here taking the race favorite. Well, when the bookmaker pays you $2.75 back for every $1 you wager, you won't be mad at us then.

William Byron will be THE best driver in the field on Saturday. He will have the backing of Hendrick Motorsports which will no doubt supply him with a race-winning machine. Further, Byron knows how to boogie around this joint. In 2015, Byron won at Loudon in the K&N Series. In the 2016 Truck series race, Byron won. He won at Phoenix in 2017 in the Xfinity Series, while also finishing third at Loudon that same year. Look for Byron to be in the class in 2022.

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