A.J. Hinch under contract with Tigers through 2025

Just before the 2020 season concluded, the Tigers finalized agreement with A.J. Hinch to take over as manager. At the time, the club announced the hiring only as a “multi-year” deal, and it’d remained unclear for how long he was under contract until this week. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reports that Hinch signed a five-year pact, taking him through the end of the 2025 campaign. Rosenthal adds that general manager Al Avila’s deal wraps up before that point, although its specific terms are still unreported.

The five-year term for Hinch is a fairly lengthy commitment for a manager, but it reflects the atypical track in which he was hired. Generally regarded as one of the sport’s best skippers for much of his tenure with the Astros, Hinch was suspended for the entire 2020 season after the extent of the club’s 2017 sign-stealing operation became public. Houston dismissed both he and GM Jeff Lunhow almost immediately thereafter, but Hinch became an in-demand managerial candidate virtually the second his suspension was up.

The 48-year-old oversaw 100-win teams for each of his final three seasons in Houston. The Astros claimed a pair of pennants during that stretch and won the 2017 World Series. Those teams’ star-studded rosters obviously played a big role in that success, but the manager had drawn plenty of plaudits for the Astros’ excellence before the sign-stealing revelations.

Since landing in Detroit, Hinch has endured quite a bit more losing. That was to be expected last season as the club neared the end of a massive rebuild. The Tigers were coming off their third last place finish in four years, and a dismal April killed any chance they had of hanging in contention in 2021. Detroit played fairly well from May onwards, however, leading to some optimism they might turn a corner this year.

Instead, the Tigers have begun the season at a 26-43 pace. They are virtually certain to finish below .500 for a sixth straight year, and they have been outscored by 100 runs through play Thursday. Detroit’s rotation has been gutted by injuries, with only Tarik Skubal staying healthy all season. Spencer Turnbull also underwent Tommy John surgery last year and was always expected to miss most or all of the season. Virtually any team would have a tough time overcoming the losses of six of its top seven starters, but the Tigers’ problems have gone beyond rotation woes.

The bigger indictment for the organization has been a generally anemic offense that ranks last in MLB with 198 runs scored. (Every other team has plated at least 220). Detroit has a .226/.281/.327 slash line that translates to a 75 wRC+, indicating they’ve been 25 percentage points worse than the average hitting team. That figure is tied with the A’s for worst in the league. The Detroit lineup has been problematic essentially top to bottom; of 11 players with at least plate appearances, Miguel Cabrera and Austin Meadows are the only two with a wRC+ better than the 100 league average. Cabrera (.299/.336/.374) and Meadows (.250/.347/.328) have only been marginally above par themselves.

The team’s disappointing first half is magnified by the aggressiveness with which Avila and his staff attacked this past offseason. Detroit signed Javier Báez to a $140M guarantee with a post-2023 opt-out opportunity. That came on the heels of a $77M investment in starter Eduardo Rodríguez, while the club picked up Meadows and Tucker Barnhart via trade. Most public projection systems still viewed Detroit as a longshot to contend for a playoff spot, but few would’ve forecast them struggling to this extent.

Avila has overseen the entirety of Detroit’s rebuild. A longtime member of the front office, he took over baseball operations in August 2015 when Dave Dombrowski left the organization. Avila assumed an aging roster with a bottom-tier farm system, so it was not surprising the club embarked on a retooling effort. Detroit has had a top ten draft pick in five of the last six seasons.

Players like Casey Mize, Riley Greene, Spencer Torkelson and Matt Manning have all reached the majors and still have plenty of long-term promise, but they’ve not yet pushed the team especially close to contention. Mize and Manning have dealt with injury issues — including a recent Tommy John procedure for the former — while Torkelson has stumbled to a .191/.282/.291 showing through his first 63 big league games.

As the August 2 trade deadline approaches, Avila and his staff look likely to serve as at least moderate sellers. Relievers Andrew Chafin and Michael Fulmer are each nearing free agency (Chafin after 2023, Fulmer following this season) and should draw interest from contenders. Barnhart, Robbie Grossman and Michael Pineda all are impending free agents and could be dealt for cost savings and/or a minimal prospect return. The Tigers would not be offering the kind of impact talent of some other sellers this summer, but they seem likely to move a few shorter-term players for help in 2023 and beyond.