Blue Jays – Starting Gausman against an AL East rival to avoid a repeat of an ugly 2023 statistic

The Toronto Blue Jays have started the 2024 campaign with a 1-2 record, winning their Opening Day contest against the Tampa Bay Rays before dropping their last two, with the bats becoming stagnant at the plate. In an attempt to split the series, the Jays will be sending right-hander Kevin Gausman to the mound to try and put Toronto back in the win column before heading off to Houston.

Gausman, the club’s bonafide ace and a Cy Young finalist in 2023, had a late ramp-up in Spring Training due to shoulder soreness and there was a possibility he would not be able to go this weekend. After a 52-pitch outing on Monday against the Pirates, his only spring start, the Jays and Gausman decided he was ready to go and the decision was made he would pitch Sunday against the Rays. Bowden Francis will get the start tomorrow against the Houston Astros.

Last season, one of the biggest Achilles heels of the Blue Jays was their ability to beat divisional opponents, which can have an impact on tiebreaker scenarios for postseason opportunities later down the line. In 2023, the Jays were 21-31 against other AL East teams, posting 6-7 records with Baltimore, Boston, and New York and a paltry 3-10 record against Tampa Bay.

Blue Jays turn to Gausman in the series finale against the Rays

While Toronto didn’t see any consequences to their Wild Card spot last year (although things got dicey near the end), a good example could be seen in the AL West where the Houston Astros and Texas Rangers finished with identical 90-72 records and the Astros claimed first in the division due to a better intradivision record against the Rangers. The outlier of this scenario is the Rangers won the World Series last year, proving that “gain a seat and anything can happen” mentality, but a look further back into history showcases the Los Angeles Dodgers and Colorado Rockies doing battle in a “winner moves on” tiebreaker game in 2018, with the Dodgers winning that do-or-die game and advancing to the World Series (where they lost to the Red Sox) while the Rockies were sent home early.

While that tiebreaker game is no longer in place given the new system, the Jays are no stranger to close finishes. In 2021, the Blue Jays missed the postseason by one game as well (before the tiebreaker rule was a thing), as the Red Sox and Yankees both finished with one more win and ousted the Jays from playoff contention on the last day of the year. The kicker was that the Blue Jays dropped two of three against the Bronx Bombers earlier in the week, which helped propel the team into the postseason.

Moral of the story? Every game matters, especially within the division.