Details on the Mets’ interest in top free-agent pitcher

Right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto is expected to be posted by the Orix Buffaloes of Nippon Professional Baseball in the coming months, which will make him one of the top free agents available to major league clubs this winter. The Mets are one of many clubs that have reported interest in him and Will Sammon of The Athletic provides some details of their upcoming courtship.

The Mets already made one big signing of a pitcher making the move from Japan, inking Kodai Senga to a five-year deal less than a year ago. That deal is looking good for the club right now, with Senga being one of the few bright spots during a tough 2023 season. He made 29 starts and threw 166 1/3 innings, finishing the year with an earned run average of 2.98.

Yamamoto is expected to be an even more appealing investment than Senga, due to a couple of factors. Senga had an ERA of 2.59 in his NPB career before coming to North America, whereas Yamamoto had a mark of 1.82. Senga dropped his ERA to 1.94 in his final NPB season but Yamamoto’s has landed at 1.21. Furthermore, Senga made the move for his age-30 season whereas Yamamoto just turned 25.

Sammon makes reference to a piece by his colleague Ken Rosenthal, who reported in April that some people in the league think that Japanese players don’t like being on the same team as other Japanese players. This seems like an absurd assertion given that NPB teams are composed primarily of Japanese players and Japanese clubs have also performed extremely well in international play, with their World Baseball Classic triumph earlier this year giving them a third title out of the five times the tournament has been held. Regardless of the merits of that line of thinking, Sammon reports that it wouldn’t apply here, with Yamamoto having no reservations about wearing the same uniform as Senga. Furthermore, Senga has openly told Mets’ management that he wants Yamamoto on the team. Sammon also reports that Yamamoto wants to play in a large market, which should work in the Mets’ favor.

Sammon goes on to address the departure of Billy Eppler, who was with the Yankees when they signed Masahiro Tanaka and with the Angels when they signed Shohei Ohtani. This may have helped him and the Mets in getting Senga aboard, but Eppler recently stepped down as general manager, with president of baseball operations David Stearns now the primary baseball decision maker. Whether the transition from Eppler to Stearns has any impact on the pursuit of Yamamoto isn’t really known.

Beyond those factors, the financials will undoubtedly be significant. Given Yamamoto’s youth and talent, it’s expected by many that he could get himself a lengthy contract with a guarantee in the range of $200MM. That gives an edge to the higher-spending clubs, a group that certainly includes the Mets, with owner Steve Cohen allowing the 2023 club to have the highest payroll in baseball history.

One thing that arguably undercuts the connection to the Mets is that the club is giving hints they won’t be as aggressive this offseason. If the team is planning a sort of reset year after the disappointing 2023 campaign, giving the new president time to assess the organization and build the farm system, then landing one of the top free agents would seem to be a bit incongruous.

But the club does need starting pitching, having dealt away Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer at the deadline. Carlos Carrasco is also about to hit free agency, leaving the club with a rotation of Senga, José Quintana and a few question marks beyond that. Quintana only has one year left on his deal, creating further uncertainty down the line. The position player prospects in the Mets’ system are also generally regarded higher than their pitching prospects. Since Yamamoto is so young, it’s possible the Mets could view this as a rare opportunity to add a pitcher with many prime years remaining, which would push them to make an earnest pursuit and improve their long-term pitching outlook even if the overall offseason plan is going to be less aggressive than it was a year ago.

The Mets making a legitimate run at Yamamoto seems plausible but they figure to have plenty of competition, as he’s already been publicly connected to the Phillies, Giants, Cardinals, Cubs, Dodgers, Diamondbacks, Rangers, Tigers, Yankees and Red Sox.