The best breaking ball in all of MLB for 2023 belonged to Charlie Morton

There was some question earlier in the offseason if the Atlanta Braves would bring back starting pitcher Charlie Morton, who just turned 40, on his 2024 club option or if he'd choose to retire to his home in Florida. 

He obviously felt good about his curveball when making the decision to come back. 

Per MLB Statcast, Charlie Morton's curveball was the single most effective breaking pitch of the 2023 season, coming in at +25 Run Value. 

(Simple explainer of "Run Value": The effectiveness of a pitch at preventing runs in any given runners on base, ball & strike count scenario. The higher the number above zero, the better it is at preventing runs versus other pitches thrown in that same runners + count scenario.)

Three of the top five pitches on the leaderboard are fastballs, led by AL CY Young award winner Gerrit Cole of the New Yankees and his four-seamer (+29), Arizona Diamondbacks ace Zac Gallen's four-seamer (+27) sitting at number three, and Toronto Blue Jays starter Chris Bassitt's sinker (+27) at four. Sitting at number two is San Francisco Giants starter Logan Webb's changeup, at +28 Run Value. 

Per Statcast, Morton's curveball allowed only a .177 batting average and .258 slugging against, and he threw it 43.2% of the time. Batters swung and missed on it 42.0% of the time, and it accounted for 37.1% of his strikeouts. 

It was far away the single most effective pitch for the Atlanta Braves in 2023, with Spencer Strider's slider coming in 2nd place at +12 run value, allowing a .154 batting average and .269 slugging. 

But it's not all great news

The issue for Morton, and something he'll need to address for the 2024 season, is the effectiveness of his fastball. It was the single least effective pitch amongst all Braves pitchers who faced at least ten batters in 2023, coming in at a -12 run value. The heater, which averaged 94.8 mph, allowed a .297 batting average and .487 slugging. 

Morton seemed to identify the issue with his fastball as the season progressed, with its usage dropping from a season-opening 35% to just 29.4% by September. 

But as Morton enters his age 40 season, it's worth discussing what sort of tweaks can be made to balance his arsenal. He threw both a sinker and cutter at times in 2023, with the sinker grading out (on a rate basis) to be worse than the four-seam but the cutter coming in mostly neutral. If Morton can generate more horizontal movement on the pitch (it averaged 0.5 inches of break, a full 130% below major league average for cutters), it could provide a useful alternative to a standard fastball going forward.   

View the full Run Value leaderboard HERE. 

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