Is Stewart-Haas Racing making a mistake with Cole Custer?

Custer's lone highlight in three years of racing at NASCAR's top level was a win at Kentucky in his rookie season. In 111 career starts, he had only 12 top-10 finishes and an average finish of 20.5. 

But is Stewart-Haas Racing making a mistake? 

As with anything, context matters, particularly in auto racing where a driver has much less control over his own destiny than in other sports. Despite underwhelming results, an argument can be made that Custer has improved throughout his three Cup seasons. 

The real decline, as it turns out, was in SHR's equipment.

Teammate Kevin Harvick went from winning nine times in 2020 (Custer's rookie year) to only twice from 2021 to '22, and Aric Almirola had more top-five and top-10 finishes in 2020 than he did in the following two years combined.

Harvick's average running position also dropped from ninth in 2020 to 11th in 2021 and 14th in 2022, and Almirola's fell from 14th in 2020 to 19th in both 2021 and 2022. Meanwhile, Custer's fell from 19th in 2020 to 21st in 2021, but then climbed back to 20th this year.

Those aren't world-beating numbers, but it's important to keep in mind that Custer is only 24. Many young NASCAR drivers have struggled at the top level during their first few seasons only to turn their careers around later. The best recent example is the driver Custer replaced in 2020, Daniel Suarez.

Suarez was viewed as a bust and nearly fell out of the Cup Series before finding his footing with Trackhouse Racing, where he enjoyed a career best season this past year. He earned his first win at Sonoma and finished in the top 10 in points.

Custer will still have the opportunity to showcase himself next year in the NASCAR Xfinity Series. But the thing is that he's already more than proven himself at that level, winning seven races in 2019.

Making it back to the top level after being deemed damaged goods is easier said than done, and Custer's demotion seems more or less pointless.

The decision to replace Custer with 32-year-old Ryan Preece is a bit of a head-scratcher, too. If Custer had worn out his welcome in Cup, it's fair to question what that makes Preece, who never won driving for JTG-Daugherty Racing from 2019-21. 

Custer may not have set the world on fire in the Cup Series, but he deserved more chances than he got.