NASCAR Playoffs: Predicting winners and losers in the Round of 12

With four fewer drivers than we had just about a month ago, the NASCAR Playoffs advance to the Round of 12, starting at Texas. Another intermediate track that should fit the Next Gen car’s strengths perfectly. However, we know all too well how rough this track can be on tires.

Given the fact that there were so many issues a year ago, Chase Elliott had his tires catch fire at Texas, there will be a new right-side tire at this track. The Charlotte Roval is going to have stage breaks, too. Talladega, well, that’s just Dega folks.

Points have reset, and we have four new drivers under the cutline. Ross Chastain (-3), Brad Keselowski (-3), Ryan Blaney (-6), and Bubba Wallace (-14). Meanwhile, William Byron and Martin Truex Jr. took the lead again after lackluster performances in the Round of 16.

Let’s get into these next three races and try to predict what happens. We were a little bit off. Believed in Truex too much. No one saw Joey Logano leaving early, and Kevin Harvick got robbed of a win at Darlington.

Now we have a little more clarity so let’s try and do it again for the Round of 12.

Round of 12 – Texas Motor Speedway

Texas Motor Speedway is a chaotic track to start this round of the NASCAR Playoffs. It can tear up cars and pi-- off drivers. It also stinks as an All-Star Race venue. Tyler Reddick won this race a year ago. Let’s also remember this is a 400-mile event now, not 500 miles. I think that matters a lot. Kyle Larson and Denny Hamlin are the favorites for this race.

Ford should be strong here. Kevin Harvick, Keselowski, Blaney – all three should be in contention and have won at this track in the past. That is if they have the speed to start. I know Harvick was eliminated in the last round, but he could now play spoiler.

Prediction: This is going to be a hot NASCAR Playoffs race weekend in Texas. Ford is going to qualify really well here. I’m going to stick with my gut instinct and say that Keselowski and Blaney are going to be there at the end of this race with a chance to win. Based on how Toyota has performed on 1.5-mile tracks, I could see Reddick or Hamlin winning this race as well.

NASCAR Playoffs Round of 12 – Talladega

This second round is back-to-back wild card races in the NASCAR Playoffs. Texas can end a driver’s day on short notice with a flat tire or mechanical issue. If you lose ground on points in that race, then you have to go to Talladega and try to make them up. Points racing, let alone winning, at Dega is not easy.

Once again, Blaney should be in contention. This is his best round, in my opinion. I think this is a race Chase Elliott can play spoiler. As for other below-the-line drivers – once again Keselowski comes to mind. Six wins at Dega and pushed Chris Buescher to the win at Daytona just a few weeks ago. Wallace could also be the one to win this race. He had a great shot at it earlier this season.

A lot can happen at Talladega in the NASCAR Playoffs and it’s almost impossible to predict, but that won’t stop us.

Prediction: How about this, there’s going to be a massive crash at some point that completely changes the race… too vague? Well, I think we do see Bubba Wallace do well here, I just don’t know if a win is in the cards for him. Hamlin, Elliott, Blaney – they will be in those first few rows as the race comes to an end with an opportunity to make a winning move. Give me Keselowski for his seventh Dega win.

Elimination Race – Charlotte Roval

A controversial race, the stage breaks are coming back. That means we are going to have at least two restarts throughout this road course/oval hybrid. With the banked turns being included, it’s an interesting setup for sure. I’m going to say it again – Ryan Blaney.

Blaney has won here before. I like Elliott at this track as well. But you know who else I like? Christopher Bell. I think he’s going to be in another dire situation at the Roval like he was in 2022. It will be a do-or-die race for him and he will have to perform well. Is this Hamlin’s turn to win a road course after coming so close at times this year?

I actually really like Kyle Larson to win this race. For the first two races, I wouldn’t be shocked if he won. However, it doesn’t feel right. I think he runs really well at all three races and is good on points, pulls out the stops for this race.

Prediction: Call me crazy, this is the track where the Hamlin and Larson rivalry fires back up. It won’t be at Texas or Dega. I don’t think it will be Vegas later or Martinsville. No, it’s the Charlotte Roval. Blaney will try to steal the win, Bell will need to have a great points day or a win to advance and we are going to get a better-than-expected Roval race to end the NASCAR Playoffs Round of 12.

Eliminations: Chris Buescher, Christopher Bell, Ross Chastain, Bubba Wallace