Projecting the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series standings: Drivers 13-24

The 2024 NASCAR season will begin with the Busch Light Clash at The Coliseum in Los Angeles on Feb. 4.

34 of the 36 chartered Cup Series teams have announced full-time drivers, with the other cars (Kaulig Racing's No. 16 and Rick Ware Racing's No. 15) expected to be shared. 

Let's preview the rest of the field, in reverse projected order of their final standings position.

More projections: Drivers 1-12 | Drivers 25-34

24. Josh Berry | No. 4 | Stewart-Haas Racing

Berry is the most-hyped rookie of 2024, replacing the retired Kevin Harvick in SHR's flagship No. 4 car. Of course, Berry is 33, incredibly old for a Cup rookie, and he didn't exactly star in the Xfinity Series as he was shut out of victory lane in 2023 and finished 11th in points.

Berry was a bit more impressive in his substitute-role Cup starts, with three top-10s in 10 races, but it's worth noting that his best result, a runner-up at Richmond, was due to a fortuitous late-race caution occurring while his team had yet to bring him to pit road. 

He was also driving for Hendrick Motorsports in eight of those 10 races, and SHR has not been on that level for several years. Unless that changes, Berry seems likely to end up being one of the big disappointments of 2024.

23. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | No. 47 | JTG-Daugherty Racing

The 2023 Daytona 500 winner got off to a strong start last year, but quietly tapered off throughout the season and finished last in points of the 16 playoff drivers. Stenhouse has been one of NASCAR's most unpredictable drivers throughout his career, and could probably realistically end up anywhere between 15th and 30th. So we'll split the middle and say 23rd is a decent prediction.

22. Michael McDowell | No. 34 | Front Row Motorsports

It seems that every year McDowell has ended up being one of the surprises in the final standings only for expectations to return to the low end of the Cup grid the next February. That ends in 2024. McDowell and Front Row Motorsports should be considered fringe playoff contenders once again, with the potential to compete for wins on the road courses.

21. Carson Hocevar | No. 77 | Spire Motorsports

You want a bold prediction? Hocevar — not Josh Berry — will be the 2024 Cup Series Rookie of the Year. It may seem quite bullish to expect a 21-year-old rookie to put up results this quickly, especially on a team that's not exactly well-established in the Cup garage. But Hocevar's starts at the end of 2023 showed he's a special talent, as he consistently ran inside the top 20 for Legacy Motor Club, a team that struggled throughout the year.

Speaking of which...

20. John Hunter Nemechek | No. 42 | Legacy Motor Club

The aforementioned Legacy Motor Club may have struggled to find speed in 2023, but don't expect that to continue. Why? The team has switched manufacturers to Toyota, and its lame-duck status with Chevrolet can likely be attributed as a primary factor for why 2023 was a down year.

Furthermore, Nemechek is a high-level talent who returns to Cup racing for the first time in four years and will be hungry for success. He bet on himself after his rookie campaign in 2020 with Front Row Motorsports, choosing to sign a development deal with Toyota rather than remaining with a struggling Cup team in hopes that it could lead to better opportunities in his future. Now, he has that opportunity.

19. Chase Briscoe | No. 14 | Stewart-Haas Racing

No one needs a bounceback year more than Briscoe, who was, without question, the biggest disappointment of 2023. After making the Round of 8 in the 2022 playoffs and finishing ninth in points, Briscoe fell to a pitiful 30th. Although that ranking was exaggerated due to a 120-point penalty for a technical infraction to his team during the Coca-Cola 600, he'd have still been only 23rd without it.

In Briscoe's favor, he now takes over presumed team leader status at SHR following Kevin Harvick's retirement. Not in his favor, though, is that if SHR doesn't improve from its recent performance, Briscoe will have a hard time returning to 2022 form.

18. Alex Bowman | No. 48 | Hendrick Motorsports

Bowman's 2023 season was marred by a back injury he suffered during a sprint car race away from NASCAR, causing him to miss three races. He missed the playoffs for the first time in his Hendrick Motorsports tenure, finishing 20th in points despite being the points leader at one time early in the season.

Bowman should be expected to slightly bounce back in 2024, but the battle around the playoff bubble will be extremely competitive. At least one or two big names must be left on the outside looking in, and Bowman will fall just short.

17. Daniel Suarez | No. 99 | Trackhouse Racing

Trackhouse Racing was the talk of the NASCAR world in its breakout 2022 season, in which Suarez and teammate Ross Chastain earned their first career wins and finished in the top 10 in points. It was a bit of a step back in 2023, with Suarez left out of the playoffs. With Shane van Gisbergen potentially waiting in the wings, he may be racing for his ride in 2024.

Suarez should be a threat to win on the road courses, where he's proved himself as one of the top drivers in the series. But given the depth of this field, he may need a victory or two if he's going to return to the playoffs.

16. Brad Keselowski | No. 6 | Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing

Speaking of drivers looking to return to victory lane, it's now been almost three calendar years (Talladega in spring 2021) since Keselowski won a race. In 2023, he helped build RFK to its most competitive state in some time, but it was his teammate, Chris Buescher, who benefited most with three wins and a seventh-place points finish.

Keselowski was right behind him in eighth, though, and even though he'll turn 40 in February and has declined from his days as a title contender, he should be expected to be back in the playoffs once again.

15. Bubba Wallace | No. 23 | 23XI Racing

If there were still any questions about Wallace's talent as a Cup driver, he silenced them in 2023 with his first playoff appearance and first career top-10 points finish. He'll look to build on that with a rising 23XI Racing team, and while his teammate, Tyler Reddick, will get most of the attention, don't count out Wallace as a dark horse for another playoff run.

14. Chris Buescher | No. 17 | Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing

As noted, Buescher enjoyed a breakout 2023 campaign, winning three times in five weeks late last summer. However, much of Buescher's season was the result of rock-solid consistency that's incredibly hard to sustain, so he may take a slight step back in 2024.

Still, Buescher has proved himself to be a playoff-caliber driver, and his cars are certainly fast enough to compete near the front regularly. We'll be hearing about him a lot once again.

13. Erik Jones | No. 43 | Legacy Motor Club

Expect him to be Breakout Driver of the Year. With Legacy Motor Club expected to rebound as it switches manufacturers to Toyota, Jones will have his best chance ever to thrive in the Cup Series. Unlike during his Joe Gibbs Racing days from 2018-2020, he's now a veteran and the lead driver at his organization.

Furthermore, Jones and Legacy already seemed to hit on something at the end of 2023, with several runs during the playoffs in which he mixed it up near the front. Jones will be in the playoffs in 2024; it's just a question of how far he'll go.