Projecting the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series standings: Drivers 1-12

The 2024 NASCAR season will begin with the Busch Light Clash at The Coliseum in Los Angeles on  Feb. 4.

Thirty-four of the 36 chartered Cup Series teams have announced full-time drivers, with the other cars (Kaulig Racing's No. 16 and Rick Ware Racing's No. 15) expected to be shared. So let's preview the rest of the field, in reverse projected order of their final standings position. 

More projections: Drivers 13-24 | Drivers 25-34 

12. Ty Gibbs | No. 54 | Joe Gibbs Racing

The 2023 Cup Series Rookie of the Year is one of NASCAR's brightest young stars in quite some time. The flashes he showed toward the end of the season — most notably leading 102 laps at Bristol in September — signal his arrival as one of the series' top drivers is imminent. Gibbs should make his first playoff appearance for his grandfather Joe's team, and it almost certainly won't be his last.

11. Martin Truex Jr. | No. 19 | Joe Gibbs Racing

2024 may be the final ride for Gibbs' JGR teammate Truex, who has considered retiring for the past several years. It seems more likely than ever he may hang it up this time around, as his performance fell off a cliff late in the 2023 season after he had led the points standings for much of the prior season.

Much of that was likely due to the tragic passing of Truex's longtime girlfriend, Sherry Pollex, who lost her battle with ovarian cancer. At 43, Truex may find his best days in the rearview mirror, but perhaps he has one last competitive surge in him.

10. Kyle Busch | No. 8 | Richard Childress Racing

On the subject of declining drivers, it seems like 2024 may finally be the year in which Busch is written off as a title-caliber contender in NASCAR. He seemed to be reinvigorated at the start of 2023, with a chip on his shoulder following his move from Joe Gibbs Racing to RCR, but he dropped off considerably throughout the season and finished 14th in points, his worst standing since his rookie year in 2005.

Busch will still comfortably make the playoffs and could win a race or two. But he's entered the twilight portion of his career, and there's no going back. 

9. Joey Logano | No. 22 | Team Penske

Since the inception of NASCAR's elimination-style playoffs in 2014, Logano has sustained one of the craziest streaks in the sport. In every even-numbered year, he has made it to the championship round. In every odd-numbered year, he has failed to do so.

That streak ends in 2024. Many of Logano's best seasons during the 2010s came in a weaker era of NASCAR competition and at a time when Team Penske was the class of the field every week. 2023 was one of the worst years of Logano's career at Penske, and even if the team bounces back, Ryan Blaney is now its top dog. Logano will compete for a top-10 points finish but not a title.

8. Christopher Bell | No. 20 | Joe Gibbs Racing

Bell is the only driver who has been part of each of the past two championship rounds in the Cup Series, and yet it remains hard to view the 29-year-old as part of that elite tier of drivers in the sport. In each of the past two seasons, he has largely been an afterthought when it comes to the title race before earning timely wins to advance his way there. That can't happen every year, can it?

So Bell may not be competing for a championship in 2024, but he is a young driver who is still on the rise and should enjoy another strong season inside the top 10 in points. At the very least, he always gives himself plenty of opportunities to run up front with his qualifying prowess, as he's won 10 pole positions throughout the past two seasons.

7. Chase Elliott | No. 9 | Hendrick Motorsports

2023 was not a great year for drivers named Chase. Unlike Chase Briscoe, however, the 2020 champion and NASCAR's Most Popular Driver should rebound from his playoff-less campaign, a product of seven missed races due to injury and suspension. In the 29 races he ran, Elliott compiled the fifth-best average finish in the series, so it's not like he just forgot how to drive.

Still, it may be reasonable to pump the brakes on expecting Elliott to return to his title-favorite form of 2020-22. While he still put up consistent results in 2023, he led a career-low 195 laps. Hendrick Motorsports' No. 5 and 24 teams have seemed to surpass the No. 9 in speed, and keeping Alan Gustafson atop Elliott's pit box may prove to be costly, especially after Gustafson's strategy blunder at Watkins Glen was ultimately what cost him his season.

6. Denny Hamlin | No. 11 | Joe Gibbs Racing

With each passing year, Hamlin's hopes of finally winning a Cup Series championship get slimmer. He has become the Dallas Cowboys of NASCAR, with annual promises that "next year is our year" — except in Hamlin's case, he's 43 and eventually there will be no more "next year."

After three straight championship appearances from 2019-21, Hamlin missed the title round in 2022 and 2023, and as the front of the field becomes dominated by younger, fresher faces, it's hard to envision him making it back in 2024. He'll still be a tough out, though, as long as he can rely on his trusty crew chief Chris Gabehart, one of the best in the business.

5. William Byron | No. 24 | Hendrick Motorsports

Byron was the talk of NASCAR in 2023, earning a series-high six wins and leading the full-season championship points standings had the playoffs not been in effect. He seems like a solid bet to make it back to the title race again in 2024, but there's also reason to expect a regression, as many of Byron's 2023 wins were products of chaotic late-race restarts.

He won't drop off too much, though, and will undoubtedly be considered a threat all year once again. But the remaining four drivers will be just a bit better.

4. Tyler Reddick | No. 45 | 23XI Racing

Many expected big things from Reddick when he moved over to 23XI Racing for 2023, and on raw speed, he delivered. Reddick won twice and could have easily had several more wins, but a lack of execution from his team did him in, causing his results to be inconsistent.

Now, with a year under its belts working together, the No. 45 team should be improved as a whole, and Reddick will be among the top class of title contenders. 

3. Ryan Blaney | No. 12 | Team Penske

Now having earned the distinction of being a Cup Series champion, the pressure is off for Blaney, who has officially cemented himself as one of NASCAR's elites. There's no reason to expect he'll fall from that tier in 2024, but repeating as champion is very hard — that's why nobody has done it since Jimmie Johnson's incredible five-in-a-row streak from 2006-2010.

So while Blaney will rack up a few wins and quite possibly make it to Phoenix for a chance to defend his throne, he won't be the most dominant driver of the year and won't hoist the trophy. Instead, two others will be duking it out — one you'd expect, the other perhaps a surprise.

2. Kyle Larson | No. 5 | Hendrick Motorsports

Simply put, Larson is the best driver in NASCAR. He has earned his status as the gold standard, the guy who every year comes in with the highest expectations.

Yet, Larson's consistency from year to year has often left more to be desired. You know he always has the highest ceiling of any driver in the field, but the execution can sometimes be lacking, and recently, he seems to be on a bit of an odd year/even year pattern between title-caliber seasons and underwhelming ones. So while he'll be in the championship mix again in 2024, he won't win the title.

1. Ross Chastain | No. 1 | Trackhouse Racing

That's right. You heard it here first: Chastain will be the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series champion. After his meteoric rise in 2022, Chastain was a bit of a disappointment as he adjusted to expectations in 2023. His season was marred by more controversies than victories ... until the end.

In the season finale at Phoenix, Chastain became the first driver in 10 years of the elimination playoff format to win the race despite being ineligible for the championship. He seemed to carry a newfound swagger throughout the event. He was unapologetic about mixing it up with the title contenders but remained cool and drove clean and fair.

It's that finesse that's been missing from Chastain's reckless reputation, and if he has now harnessed it after a season of being humbled by harsh realities, watch out. Chastain should have his best season yet, and the fact that he has proved he can win at Phoenix puts him over the top as a preseason title favorite.