Projecting the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series standings: Drivers 25-34

The 2024 NASCAR season will begin with the Busch Light Clash at The Coliseum in Los Angeles on  Feb. 4.

Thirty-four of the 36 chartered Cup Series teams have announced full-time drivers, with the other cars (Kaulig Racing's No. 16 and Rick Ware Racing's No. 15) expected to be shared. So let's preview the rest of the field, in reverse projected order of their final standings position.

More projections: Drivers 1-12 | Drivers 13-24

34. Justin Haley | No. 51 | Rick Ware Racing

Almost by default, one must expect Haley to bring up the rear simply because RWR is the weakest full-time team on the Cup Series grid. There's a chance the team could improve with a stronger alliance with Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing, and Haley is undoubtedly the best full-time driver Ware has ever had. Still, it would be hard to slot anyone else here.

33. Daniel Hemric | No. 31 | Kaulig Racing

One of the most perplexing offseason moves involves Haley's old ride, Kaulig Racing's No. 31 entry. Kaulig moved on from Haley to bring in... Hemric, who in two Xfinity Series seasons with the team failed to win a race and finished no better than eighth in points.

Hemric has Cup experience, running the full 2019 season for Richard Childress Racing and finishing 25th in the standings. However, the field is much deeper now and Kaulig is not as good of a team as RCR. Expect 2024 to be a struggle for Hemric.

32. Zane Smith | No. 71 | Spire Motorsports

Spire Motorsports may be the wild-card team of the 2024 Cup Series grid, with two rookies making the jump from the Truck Series to the top level. Carson Hocevar will pilot the team's No. 77 entry, but the even bigger question is Smith, who will drive the team's new No. 71.

Smith was the 2022 Truck Series champion, but he regressed in 2023 as he failed to reach the championship round. He may eventually turn into a solid Cup driver, but the learning curve for rookies is often steeper than expected, so he'll probably be running near the back a lot in 2024.

31. Harrison Burton | No. 21 | Wood Brothers Racing

It's put up or shut up for Burton, who enters his third Cup Series season after the storied Wood Brothers Racing team brought him back for 2024. And, judging by Burton's performance in his first two seasons, it's hard to expect much.

Burton regressed in 2023 from a 27th-place points finish as a rookie to 31st as a second-year driver. In  73 Cup Series starts, he has only four top-10 finishes and led only 60 laps. There doesn't seem to be a whole lot of upside here.

30. Todd Gilliland | No. 38 | Front Row Motorsports

Despite being taken out of his normal ride for six races in 2023, Gilliland showed improvement across the board from his rookie season. He finished in the same points position of 28th but earned twice as many top-10s (four) and his average finish (22) improved by more than a full position.

That said, it's hard to envision much more improvement as the field continues to grow deeper, and while Front Row Motorsports' No. 34 car driven by Michael McDowell has figured something out in recent years, that speed has never consistently carried over to the team's sister car regardless of its driver. Perhaps some stability will help FRM and Gilliland, but 30th seems like a safe bet.

29. Noah Gragson | No. 10 | Stewart-Haas Racing

Gragson's rookie season in 2023 was absolutely disastrous — and that was even before he was suspended and released from his Legacy Motor Club team after an off-track controversy in August. It's a mystery why SHR hired Gragson for its vacant No. 10 car rather than promoting Cole Custer from within, given Custer is a former Cup Series race winner and 2023 Xfinity Series champion.

However, even with SHR having considerably fallen from grace in recent years, Gragson will be driving cars that should be significantly faster than at Legacy and won't need to overdrive as much. One should expect a slight improvement from his 2023 performance.

28. Corey LaJoie | No. 7 | Spire Motorsports

LaJoie had the best season of his Cup career in 2023, achieving career highs across the board and earning his first top-25 points finish. With the continued improvement of Spire Motorsports, it may not be unreasonable to think he'll continue to climb up the running order.

On the other hand, with Spire bringing in rookies Carson Hocevar and Zane Smith, it seems more likely that he could get lost in the shuffle. It's worth noting that LaJoie's 25th-place points finish in 2023 would have been lower had it not been for points penalties to several drivers below him, and he was also lucky to avoid any DNFs. Expect a slight regression.

27. Austin Dillon | No. 3 | Richard Childress Racing

After being a borderline playoff-level driver throughout much of the past decade, Dillon had the worst points finish (29th) of his career in 2023. Perhaps he'll bounce back in 2024, but he turns 34 in April and his performance has been on a steady decline for a while. It seems more likely he'll be working in the RCR front office within a few years.

26. Ryan Preece | No. 41 | Stewart-Haas Racing

Preece showed impressive flashes in 2023, his first year at SHR, mainly on the short tracks — he won the pole and led 135 laps in the spring Martinsville race and scored a fifth-place finish at the summer Richmond race. Ultimately, though, his season was marred by crashes and he struggled to a middling 23th place in points.

Roughly the same can be expected of Preece in 2024. He may also further slip through the cracks at SHR after the team brought in newcomers Gragson and Josh Berry. With the team struggling as a whole, it seems like the middle of the pack is about Preece's ceiling as a Cup driver.

25. Austin Cindric | No. 2 | Team Penske

One of the biggest disappointments of 2023 was Cindric, the 2022 Daytona 500 winner and Cup Series Rookie of the Year. The second-year slump was real for Cindric, who fell to 24th in points from 12th as a rookie and scored only one top-five finish compared to five in 2022.

Granted, Team Penske struggled to find speed as a whole last season (despite Ryan Blaney getting hot at the right time to win the title) and may be due for a bounceback in 2024. The jury is still out on Cindric though, and this season will be telling in regards to his long-term future as a Cup driver.