Three drivers to watch (and one to avoid) in NASCAR's season-opening Clash

As long as weather permits, the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series season will begin this Sunday with the exhibition Busch Light Clash at the L.A. Coliseum.

In 2023, it was Martin Truex Jr. taking home the checkered flag. Truex made a statement following a winless 2022, and it was a precursor of things to come as he found victory lane three additional times and won the regular season championship.

Who will be victorious this time around? Here's three drivers to watch — one favorite, one likely contender and one dark horse — as well as one to avoid putting your money on.

Favorite: Ryan Blaney

It's a clean slate for everyone in the field, but if anyone has some momentum working in their favor, it has to be Blaney, the 2023 champion after his red-hot ending to the season.

Blaney was particularly outstanding on the short tracks down the stretch, with his win at Martinsville catapulting him into the race for the championship. His Penske race team has won the Clash before, in 2022 with Joey Logano, so he should have plenty of speed.

At +1400, Blaney is tied for the eighth-best odds to win the Clash. This seems like a massive bargain. If you're a betting man, you should be all-in on Blaney.

Contender: Kyle Larson

Larson is always a safe choice. Flat short tracks had previously been a relative weakness for him, he was dominant on them in 2023 as he picked up wins at Martinsville, Richmond and the North Wilkesboro All-Star race.

If that speed carries over into the new year, Larson will be as good of a pick as anyone. He is a three weigh tie atop the odds at +900, so he's not exactly a great value bet, but you can probably count on him to be mixing it up near the front.

Dark Horse: Austin Dillon

There's plenty of good choices here for a driver who could surprise some folks. Ryan Preece, who led 43 laps in the 2023 race, is one of them. Justin Haley, who had top-five speed in 2022 and finished 11th in 2023, could turn some heads again. Todd Gilliland has shown a regular ability to flirt with the top 10 on short tracks.

Yet if you're looking for someone who truly has long-shot winner potential, look no further than Dillon. In two previous Clash races at the Coliseum, he has finished third in 2022 and second in 2023. At +2500, Dillon may have the best value in the entire field.

Avoid: Brad Keselowski

Keselowski may be a trendy pick for a statement win similar to Truex in 2023, after he enjoyed a strong bounceback season yet still did not find victory lane. He and his Roush-Fenway-Keselowski race team have shown plenty of short track speed, most notably at Richmond last July when Keselowski led a race-high 102 laps and his teammate Chris Buescher won.

However, in both years of the Clash at the Coliseum thus far, Keselowski and RFK have been dreadful. In fact, neither he nor Buescher have even qualified for the main event either time. That may change in 2024, but Keselowski is not worth his +1200 odds.