Beantown Rundown: Who should Celtics want to face in first round of 2024 NBA Playoffs?

The 7-10 seeds in each conference each partake in the Play-In Tournament, so in the East, the four teams participating this year (from the seven seed to ten seed) are the Philadelphia 76ers, Miami Heat, Chicago Bulls, and Atlanta Hawks. The Sixers and Heat will play each other in their first game, while the Bulls and Hawks play each other. The winner of the Sixers/Heat game becomes the seven seed, while the loser of that game faces off against the winner of the Bulls/Hawks game for the eight seed and a first-round matchup with the Celtics.

A quick look at the field, and it appears as if a first-round matchup with either the Sixers or Heat is inevitable. Philly is only in this spot because they played more than half of the regular season without Joel Embiid, who is now healthy and ready to lead them on a deep playoff run. And of course, Miami’s penchant for becoming a completely different team in the playoffs is something that Boston is far too familiar with.

Given how good they have been with Embiid this season, Philly is favored to beat Miami in their matchup on Wednesday night. That would see them earn the seven seed and get a first-round matchup with the New York Knicks, but from a Boston perspective, it would also ensure that they could only meet up with the Sixers in a potential Eastern Conference Finals matchup.

While the 76ers have a history of playoff struggles during the Embiid era, that’s probably not the worst thing that could happen for the C’s. Philly has looked like a completely different team with Embiid on the floor this season, and while the overarching belief is that the Celtics can beat any team in a seven-game series, facing them later in the playoffs when they aren’t as fresh is probably the most optimal outcome.

If the Sixers lose and then beat either the Bulls or the Hawks, though, they would become the Celtics first-round opponent. Conversely, that would result in them avoiding an early series with the Heat. The playoff pedigree Miami carries is certainly worrisome, but you can’t help but feel like it would be better to face them earlier in the playoffs, rather than giving them time to build up some momentum before a meeting in the Eastern Conference Finals (which, again, would be the only series Boston could face Miami in if they become the seven seed.)

This all goes without saying that if Boston somehow ends up facing either Chicago or Atlanta in the first-round, that would be a huge victory for them. One of these teams would have to beat each other, and then the Sixers or Heat, which seems like a very tall task, but anything can happen in the NBA. The Celtics undoubtedly would be overjoyed to land a first-round matchup with either of these teams.

Neither the Bulls or Hawks finished the regular season with a record over .500, and both are extremely inconsistent and have lots of internal tension brewing. Atlanta is probably the more dangerous team, even though they closed the regular season on a six-game losing streak, given their familiarity with Boston (they played in the first-round of the playoffs last year), and the fact that they handed the C’s a pair of shocking losses late in March.

Chicago is a team that, despite having a strong collection of players, has struggled to put all the pieces together, and simply does not have the firepower to match Boston. They might receive a big game from DeMar DeRozan to let them sneak out a win, but aside from that remote possibility, this would be a series the Celtics would almost surely win in five games or less.

While fans can daydream about that possibility, it seems like the Celtics are on a collision-course for a matchup with either the Sixers or Heat, which is obviously a less than ideal way to start off the playoffs. As mentioned above, playing the Heat and getting that out of the way early is probably better than facing the 76ers, but playing against either one of those teams is going to result in a tough, hard-fought series right out of the gate.

Both the Sixers and Heat are going to have an incentive to avoid playing the Celtics in the first round, which should make for an entertaining game on Wednesday night. But come Friday night, every C’s fan is going to be hoping that either the Bulls or Hawks somehow manage to find a way to upset the Sixers or Heat to become the team’s first-round opponent. It may not be likely, but who’s to say it can’t happen?