NBA best bets: Action Network's Top 5 picks for Monday, Feb. 5

Kings vs. Cavaliers

Monday, Feb. 5, 7 p.m. ET (NBA League Pass)
Evan Mobley Over 9.5 Rebounds + Assists (DraftKings)

By Joe Dellera

This is a solid matchup for Evan Mobley as he ramps up in his return from injury. He has played 21, 22 and 24 minutes in the last three games and is seeing a meaningful uptick in volume each game.

The spot against the Kings and Domantas Sabonis is interesting. Jarrett Allen (ankle) is questionable; if he does not play, then it will significantly increase Mobley’s chances and opportunities in this game.

And even if Allen does play, Mobley still has averaged 11.8 combined rebounds and assists when playing between 20-30 minutes alongside Allen. In one game without him in that minutes range? Seventeen rebounds and assists against the New York Knicks.

This is a solid spot for Mobley, and even though Sabonis is an excellent rebounder, there is no meaningful size advantage for the Kings big man.

I like Mobley to continue seeing his minutes climb with a potential for greater upside if Allen sits in this game.

Pick: Evan Mobley Over 9.5 Rebounds + Assists

Mavericks vs. 76ers

Monday, Feb. 5, 7 p.m. ET (NBA League Pass)
Luka Doncic Under 9.5 Assists (DraftKings)

By Jim Turvey

Luka Doncic is listed as questionable for Monday's game, but two other names on the injury report make me like this bet if Doncic does indeed play.

Dereck Lively Jr. is out on Monday, and he is one of the biggest recipients of Doncic's assists. With Lively on the court, Doncic averages 34.7 assists per 100 possessions; that number plummets to 24.4 with Lively off the court.

That's one of the biggest single player drops I have seen on pbpstats.com. In games that Lively has played, Doncic averages a hair less than 10.0 assists per game; in game he is out, that number drops by two full assists per game.

Kyrie Irving is also back for Dallas; when Irving and Doncic share the court, Doncic also shares more of the playmaking responsibility.

Pick: Luka Doncic Under 9.5 Assists

Tyrese Maxey Over 2.5 3s (-150, FanDuel)

By Bryan Fonseca

The odds won't be amazing on this, but a 50% DraftKings boost brought this to -108 for me, making this much more palatable. I think we all know that Tyrese Maxey has the greenest of green lights without Joel Embiid for at least the foreseeable future.

Maxey will soon be listed at over/under 3.5 3s if he pours it on while given the offensive freedom. So as long as he's at 2.5 3s (-150), I'm likely taking his over. During the last two games since the latest Embiid injury, Maxey has gone over 2.5 makes both times.

Action PRO has Maxey projected at four makes tonight against a soft Mavs defense, and he'll likely live around that area if he continues to get overs — or at least a high volume of attempts.

Pick: Tyrese Maxey Over 2.5 3s (-150)

Clippers vs. Hawks

Monday, Feb. 5, 7:30 p.m. ET, (NBA League Pass)
James Harden Under 20.5 Points (+114, DraftKings)

By Bryan Fonseca

James Harden hasn't missed a game since joining the Clippers, which includes back-to-back outings. Harden has participated in six back-to-backs and has gone under this prop in the second leg in five of those games.

Harden, who dropped 21 points last night in Miami, has gone over 20.5 points in consecutive games just three times since the deal from Philly, and he's only done this once since early December.

Ultimately, the scoring is just up and down. He's under 20.5 in three of his last five and in 10 of his last 15 games. I'll take Harden under, even against the Hawks tonight, because of the circumstances.

Pick: James Harden Under 20.5 Points (+114)

Warriors vs. Nets

Monday, Feb. 5, 7:30 p.m. ET (NBA TV)
Jonathan Kuminga Over 26.5 Points + Rebounds (-113, FanDuel)

By Joe Dellera

Kuminga has been on fire lately, and his props have been a cash cow during the last nine games. While he missed this prop when he fouled out last game, he had cleared it in eight consecutive games prior.

During the last nine games, Kuminga has a 22.8% Usage rate while averaging 24.6 points and 6.3 rebounds.

From a matchup perspective, this one is solid too. Without Ben Simmons, the Nets are a bit smaller on the wing. Given Kuminga’s abilities to create for himself and be excellent off-ball as a cutter, Brooklyn will have some difficulty stopping him tonight.

I like Kuminga to exceed his PR line tonight.

Pick: Jonathan Kuminga Over 26.5 Points + Rebounds (-113)