NBA best bets: Expert picks for Friday, Feb. 2

Heat vs. Wizards

Friday, Feb. 2, 7 p.m. ET (NBA League Pass)
Jimmy Butler Over 32.5 PTS + REB + AST (-115, Bet365)

By Bryan Fonseca

Jimmy Butler typically starts playing better as the season progresses, as if he's waiting for this time of year to turn it on. Maybe it's because he doesn't care to go to All-Star Weekend, maybe it's because he's been around long enough to know the grind of a regular season and why the last few months are where it matters. Or maybe it's because by now, he's 34-years-old in his 13th year in the league and must save his Jimmy Butler-ness for the playoffs.

In any event, as the Heat snapped a seven-game skid, Butler led the charge against the Sacramento Kings, and that teams knows they need some momentum going into the All-Star Break. Butler is over this PRA in three straight games, and the Washington Wizards should offer little defensive resistance.

Pick: Jimmy Butler Over 32.5 PTS + REB + AST (-115)

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Suns vs. Hawks

Friday, Feb. 2, 7:30 p.m. ET, (NBA League Pass)
Clint Capela Over 9.5 Rebounds (-110, BetMGM)

By Joe Dellera

The Hawks take on the Phoenix Suns on Friday night and one matchup I’m eyeing is in the paint.

Clint Capela has been excellent in matchups against Jusuf Nurkic over the past few seasons. In his last seven games against Nurkic, Capela has averaged 13.4 points and 12.6 rebounds with six double-doubles. He is averaging 10.4 rebounds per game this season and has reached double-digit boards in 62% of his games.

While this is a pace-down spot for Atlanta, Capela’s size is necessary in this matchup against Nurkic and I expect him to see at least his minutes average of 25 per game in this spot. When he’s played 25-plus minutes, Capela has hit this line in 75% of games this season.


I like Capela to exceed 9.5 rebounds and if it gets too juiced you could pivot to double-double.

Pick: Clint Capela Over 9.5 Rebounds (-110)

Thunder vs. Hornets

Friday, Feb. 2, 8 p.m. ET (NBA League Pass)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 32.5 Points (-115, Caesars)

By Bryan Fonseca

You may be worried about the high point total — and at first glance, I get it. But here's why I like SGA to go over even in this potential blowout spot.

The Thunder are without Jalen Williams again tonight.

SGA has gone over 32.5 points in two straight and in four of his last seven. The spread is 16.5 at the moment, but Action Pro is projecting both a Hornets cover, meaning a likely non-blowout (to me, blowouts are 15 or more points) and Pro also projects SGA's over as one of our best edge plays today.

The Hornets have nobody that can stop him, and on a run of big scoring outputs league-wide, SGA has a chance to submit his name on the list. Despite averaging 31.3 points for the season — 33 per game in his last seven — his season-high is just 43 and he has five 40-point games, and I'm expecting at least a few more before the playoffs.

In four games without Williams this season, SGA has gone over 32.5 points twice, including one of his five 40-point efforts, which was against the Bulls in November.

Pick: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 32.5 Points (-115)

Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets

Friday, Feb. 2, 9 p.m. ET (NBA League Pass)
Nikola Jokic Over 26.5 Points (-115, ESPNBET)

By Joe Dellera

The Nuggets host the Portland Trail Blazers tonight in a game they should be able to handle from start to finish.

One matchup to watch is Nikola Jokic against Deandre Ayton. While Ayton defended Jokic pretty well at the start of his career, this has been a matchup that Jokic has dominated over the last few seasons.

Over the last two seasons, Jokic has averaged an absurd 36 points, 14 rebounds, and 10.8 assists across six games. Some of this includes the playoffs so that skews a bit of the stats but the point is made – Jokic has figured Ayton out. 

Even looking at the last five regular season matchups we can see Jokic has exceeded this line of 26.5 points in all five while averaging 31.2 ppg.

There’s been a ton of discussion regarding Jokic’s passing proficiency against “bad” teams; however, Portland is much improved over their last two weeks with a -2.7 net rating compared to their season long number of -9.4. They’re closer to league average than the bottom of the league.

This is an exploitable matchup for Jokic, so I’ll back him to exceed 26.5 points.

Pick: Nikola Jokic Over 26.5 Points (-115)