NBA best bets: Jayson Tatum to drop threes for the Cs

It's a tad early to jump back to previewing the NFL playoff matchups, so instead, we turn to the hardwood to build up our bankroll with a pair of player props. We're leaning on positional data to power our looks on this fine-looking Wednesday.

Positional weaknesses power our player prop picks tonight

Jayson Tatum 4+ threes (+135 DraftKings)

Tatum and the Celtics are facing a Spurs team today that is allowing the third-most threes per game and the fifth-highest three-point percentage against them. More than that, though, is their vulnerability to forwards, letting up the most threes per game to the position.

That should come in handy here for Tatum, who is averaging 8.4 three-point attempts per game this season. 

Tatum has dropped 4+ treys in four of his last six games and three straight at home. The past two times he saw San Antonio, the Celtics star finished with five made threes in both games. We'll gladly take this at plus-money tonight.

Jonas Valanciunas over 13.5 points (-115 DraftKings)

Valanciunas is the New Orleans Pelicans starting center, a good spot to be when drawing the Charlotte Hornets. You see, Charlotte is allowing the second-most points per game to centers, and their defense as a whole is worth targeting, ranking in the bottom five for points allowed and field-goal percentage allowed.

Valanciunas is over this 13.5 line in four of his last five games, and seven of the last nine starting centers to see the Hornets have flown over their line.

The New Orleans big man has certainly loved taking advantage of this Charlotte vulnerability in the past, dropping 30, 20 and 29 in his past three meetings. 

Consider Valanciunas up at 20+ if you'd like to roll the dice on some value. That is priced at +425.

In the news ...

Joel Embiid drops 41 against Nikola Jokic and Nuggets — In a battle of recent big-man MVPs, it was Joel Embiid emerging victorious, dropping 41 points on Denver to power a 126-121 win. Embiid has now dropped 30+ points in 18 straight games, the second-longest streak since 2000, behind James Harden's 32 straight games in 2018-19. Embiid is currently +330 to repeat as MVP, behind Jokic (+250) and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (+300).

Jim Harbaugh continues interviewing with NFL teams — Fresh off a national championship, Jim Harbaugh certainly appears set to return to the NFL. Yesterday, Harbaugh interviewed with the Atlanta Falcons, and the L.A. Chargers are also rumored to be heavily interested in the Michigan coach. Harbaugh has already received a lucrative contract extension with Michigan that would make him the highest-paid coach in NCAAF, but it seems a move back to the professional ranks is likely imminent.

PGA Tour season continues with The American Express tomorrow — The PGA Tour returns to the States after two weeks in Hawaii with The American Express in La Quinta, Calif. Expect low rounds galore this week thanks to the course, which has us wanting to target birdie-makers who can go low on all types of layouts. YB's own Jack Dougherty suggests a few winner picks, headlined by Sungjae Im at +2000. Im has never finished worse than T-18th on this course, and he's fresh off a 34-birdie performance that powered a T-5 finish. Look for Im to keep it rolling at a solid 20-1 payout.

Today's Bark Bets is written by Griffin Carroll. Follow him on Substack: griffybets.substack.com.