NBA first round Western Conference Playoff preview

Player to watch:

If the Timberwolves are going to be competitive this series, Andrew Wiggins is going to have to play out of his mind. We’ve spent the entirety of his young career wondering what it would take to motivate him to play to his potential, and the answer could be the postseason.

Wiggins has all of the measurables, and has quietly developed a signature move (that spin move through traffic is both gorgeous and devastating). Despite it all, Wiggins has been underwhelming for much of his career. He’s going to have to play above himself on the defensive end and within the offense no matter how many touches he believes he deserves.

We pretty much know what we’ll get from Jimmy Butler and Karl Anthony-Towns – we even have set expectations for Taj Gibson. Wiggins is the great unknown, unless he isn’t. And in that case, Minnesota has no shot at pulling off the upset.

Prediction:

Despite the Timberwolves finding a groove to end the season with Jimmy Butler back in the fold, don’t expect the Wolves to find much rhythm against the best basketball team in the league. The Rockets have pretty much everything in place to make a title run, and the Wolves just aren’t nearly good enough defensively to stop one of the best offenses in NBA history.

Rockets in 5

No. 8 Golden State Warriors vs.  No. 7 San Antonio Spurs

Player to watch: 

With Steph Curry out, Dejounte Murray is going to have even less work to do on the defensive end, which means he could be a lot more disruptive than the Warriors would like him to be. Murray was kind of thrown into the postseason fire last year when Tony Parker went down with an injury and he didn’t quite seem ready for the moment. When he replaced Parker in the starting lineup for performance reasons, he was more than ready for the challenge. He’s emerged as possibly the best defensive point guard in the NBA and one of the best rebounders at any position. If nothing else, Murray should be looking to make up for a disappointing first look at playoff basketball, and whoever his assignment is should expect to struggle immensely all series.

Prediction: 

This year’s meeting between the Spurs and Warriors lacks a bit of the luster that it’s had in years past with both Steph Curry and Kawhi Leonard out for the entirety of the series. While Curry’s absence makes the Warriors a completely different team, they still boast the best player in the series in Kevin Durant. The toughest half of basketball the Warriors played all last season was against the Spurs, but that was largely due in part because of Leonard’s brilliance on both sides of the floor. Without their star, the Warriors should make quick work of this iteration of the Spurs.

Warriors in 5

No. 3 Portland Trail Blazers vs. No. 6 New Orleans Pelicans

Player to watch: 

If Damian Lillard and Anthony Davis essentially cancel each other out, C.J. McCollum could be the difference maker. We all know about Lillard’s ability to explode for huge performances, but McCollum can catch fire, too. In early February, he unloaded 50 on an unexpecting Bulls squad (28 in the first quarter!) and with Lillard out, he gave Memphis 42 in a loss.

It’s rare that both Lillard and McCollum have off nights, and the nights that they’re both on seem to be happening more frequently. If McCollum gets it going, the Blazers are a nightmare to defend because it just opens things up for guys like Jusuf Nurkic in P&P or P&R sets or wings like Evan Turner, Mo Harkless and Pat Connaughton for open looks on the perimeter. Stop C.J., and things become much easier on the Pelicans.

Prediction: 

Anthony Davis and Damian Lillard both led their respective teams to heights no one predicted at the beginning of the season. Davis lost his partner in crime when DeMarcus Cousins went down but was still able to keep the Pelicans flying during the second half of the season with his brilliant play.

Dame fell in love with his jumper on Valentine’s Day when he dropped a cool 44 on the Warriors and the Blazers have been rolling ever since. The two teams split their season series, but Cousins played in both of the Pelicans wins with Portland taking the last meeting. It should be a close, fun series, but Portland is the better defensive team and Lillard’s late-game brilliance should be the difference in this series.

Portland in 6

No. 4  Oklahoma City Thunder vs. No. 5 Utah Jazz

Player to watch: 

Donovan Mitchell is going to lose the Rookie of the Year award to Ben Simmons, but it doesn’t take away from how phenomenal he’s been all season long. Mitchell has taken on the brunt of the offensive responsibilities and has been quite exciting all season long. He knocks down timely jumpers and has a penchant for obliterating rims.

Playoff basketball is a different monster, and he’s going to have some seasoned veterans on the other side of the ball who are going to do everything they can to make his life miserable. Paul George is one of the NBA’s premier perimeter defenders and Russell Westbrook, when locked in, is as tenacious as they come.

If Westbrook draws the Ricky Rubio assignment, which we can only assume he will, he can be his best self on the defensive end playing the passing lanes and disrupting the flow of an offense while not having to worry too much about his assignment as a scoring threat. Mitchell is going to have to continue to play with patience as he works through playoff level game planning designed specifically to stop him if the Jazz are to come out on top in this series.

Prediction

How do you even begin to predict a series like this? Two remarkably different teams who have the kind of players to neutralize the other team’s strength. The Thunder at their best are swarming on the defensive end and destroying teams in transition with Russell Westbrook leading the charge. The Jazz at their best keep offenses guessing with Rudy Gobert’s presence under the rim. The Thunder finished the season 24th in 3-point shooting and Paul George’s numbers behind the arc took a nosedive after the All-Star break (.433 before, .324 after). Oklahoma City is going to win some games off the strength of their talent, but Utah’s defensive prowess might be too much to overcome during the course of a seven-game series.

Utah in 7