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Best picks for Super Bowl MVP
Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

Best picks for Super Bowl MVP

It's down to two. It'll be Eagles vs. Chiefs in Super Bowl LVII.

Heading into the weekend, four teams were left in the NFL postseason, and all four were more than capable of winning the Super Bowl, at least according to the sportsbooks. The odds for each team — Kansas City (+260 - +280), Cincinnati (+250 - +265), Philadelphia (+230 - +260) and San Francisco (+320 - +350) — were a lot closer than years past, simply because there was no consensus favorite to win the Super Bowl. 

This isn't necessarily bad, but it's not necessarily good either. It's good if you like to put all your marbles in one basket and only bet on one team to win the Super Bowl. However, unlike years past, if you like bet the same amount of money, or right around the same amount, on each to win the Super Bowl, you're not guaranteed to come out on top.

So, instead of betting on who you think is going to win the Super Bowl, you should consider betting who's going to win Super Bowl MVP. You might be thinking the starting quarterback for the winning team is a lock for Super Bowl MVP, but that's not true. 

A wide receiver — Cooper Kupp last year, and Julian Edelman in Super Bowl LIII — has won Super Bowl MVP two of the last four years, and even though it's unlikely anyone other than a quarterback takes home the honor, it's still worth considering. And that's why we're going to give you not just one, but two players to bet on for Super Bowl MVP for each team.

Kansas City Chiefs

The Favorite: Patrick Mahomes, Quarterback (+350 odds, Caesars Sportsbook)

Despite suffering a gruesome high ankle sprain in Saturday's AFC Divisional win over Jacksonville, Patrick Mahomes is still the consensus favorite to win Super Bowl MVP. If Mahomes didn't get hurt on Saturday, the line would probably be right around 3/1, or just below it, but Mahomes' injury clearly bothered him in the second half, and no one, not even KC, knows how healthy he'll be come Sunday. 

Mahomes is the favorite to win regular-season MVP, and if KC has a chance of winning its second Super Bowl in the last four years, they need MVP-level Mahomes. Mahomes looked like he was playing on one leg at times on Saturday against the Jaguars, and he still torched the Jacksonville defense.

However, Mahomes is winless against the Bengals, so you might not want to go all-in on the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl, or Mahomes to win Super Bowl MVP. On the flip side, if KC does beat Cincinnati, the Chiefs will be in the driver seat to win the whole thing. 

Next Best Option: Travis Kelce, Tight End (+2800 odds, PointsBet)

Travis Kelce is hands down the best pass-catching tight end in football, and if there's anyone on KC worth betting on to win Super Bowl MVP outside of Mahomes, it's Kelce. Kelce's 14 catches on Saturday was a playoff record for most receptions by a tight end in a postseason game, and don't be surprised if he continues to catch 10+ passes a game. Mahomes' mobility will be limited on Sunday, and that means Kelce, aka, his security blanket, might just be even more involved this week.  

Tyreek Hill is gone, and Mahomes still doesn't have a go-to second option. Kelce can line up anywhere on the field, and he's still going to be a problem for opposing defenses. The All-Pro tight end has caught six or more passes in five straight games, and Cincinnati at times has struggled defending the tight end position. Expect Kelce to play a bigger role than ever down the stretch, and with the line at +2800, there's no reason not to put some money on Kelce to win Super Bowl MVP.

Philadelphia Eagles

The Favorite: Jalen Hurts, Quarterback (+350 odds, multiple sportsbooks)

If Jalen Hurts didn't miss two of the last three weeks of the season with a right should injury, he'd probably be the favorite to win regular-season MVP. Questions can finally be put to rest about whether or not Hurts would take the next step in his development after throwing for 22 touchdowns and over 3,700 yards and rushing for 13 touchdowns and over 750 yards this season. And questions about how healthy is shoulder is can also be put to sleep after throwing a pair of touchdowns and rushing for another in Saturday's 38-7 blowout win over the New York Giants. Hurts is the epitome of a true dual-threat quarterback, and he's shown that all season. 

If the Eagles do win the Super Bowl, and FanDuel has them as the favorite, not betting on Hurts to win Super Bowl is a mistake. Everything the Eagles do on offense goes through Hurts, run or pass. Outside of Week 15 against the Bears, Hurts has been great taking care of the football. And if Philly is going to beat San Francisco, Hurts will have to do that against the 49ers. 

The 49ers might have the best defense among the four teams left, and even though the line isn't great at +350, if you like the Eagles to win the whole thing, you have to bet on Hurts. Yes, the addition of AJ Brown has taken Philadelphia to another level, but the Eagles wouldn't be there without Hurts.  

Next Best Option: AJ Brown, Wide Receiver (+3500, multiple sportsbooks)

The Eagles have two elite wide receivers in AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith, but make no mistake about it, Brown is WR1, and Smith is WR2. The Eagles knew if they were going to contend for a Super Bowl, two things needed to happen. One, Hurts needed to take the next step. That happened. And two, Philadelphia needed to add a true No. 1 receiver. So, what did Philly do in the offseason? They traded for Brown. And boy, did they hit the jackpot. Brown caught a career-high 88 passes for just under 1,500 yards and 11 scores in the regular season, and he hasn't disappointed in the slightest. 

And if the Eagles have a chance of winning the Super Bowl, they need Brown to continue to be elite. Brown wasn't needed in Saturday's 38-7 blowout win over the Giants, but if the Eagles are going to beat the 49ers in the NFC Championship game, they're going to need him to be elite. And he's more than capable of doing that. 

Shoulder injuries are tricky for quarterbacks, and if Hurts does get hurt again, Brown is unequivocally the next best bet for Super Bowl MVP. Backup quarterback Gardner Minshew heavily relied on Brown when filling in for Hurts in Weeks 16 and 17, and if Minshew is needed down the stretch, look for Brown to continue to get the majority of the targets. 35/1 on Brown is a great number too, so if you're looking for a sleeper for Super Bowl MVP, assuming the Eagles win the Super Bowl, Brown is definitely that guy.

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