'TNF' preview: Playoff stakes at play in Saints-Rams game

The winner of Thursday night's New Orleans Saints-Los Angeles Rams game gains the inside track to a playoff spot. Per the New York Times playoff predictor, Los Angeles (7-7) would have a 69% chance of making the playoffs with a win while New Orleans (7-7) would have slightly better odds (70%).

With plenty at stake in the opener to Week 16, here's what to watch for.

WHEN THE SAINTS ARE ON OFFENSE

Quarterback Derek Carr: New Orleans' prized 2023 free-agent signing has quietly put together a decent season despite playing through two concussions and shoulder and rib injuries. Carr ranks sixth in completion percentage (67.4%), and his interception rate (1.6%) is tied for the fifth-lowest in the league.

With the Saints averaging 3.7 yards per rush, Carr must beat the Rams with his arm. To do that, the Saints need to throw on early downs. Per expected points added, Carr is the ninth-best quarterback on first and second downs but the fifth worst on third down among quarterbacks with at least 100 third-down plays.

Defensive tackle Aaron Donald: Donald continues to be arguably the best defender in football in his 10th season. Pro Football Focus credits him with 74 total pressures, the most in the league among defensive tackles. He's also No. 1 in ESPN's pass-rush win-rate rankings at his position. Donald should be able to exploit a mismatch against a weak interior offensive line. Center Erik McCoy and guards Cesar Ruiz and James Hurst are a big reasons why New Orleans is 28th in pass-block win-rate.

Swiss army knife Taysom Hill: The Saints' do-it-all weapon only played 12 snaps in Week 15 after missing Week 14 with foot and left hand injuries. This season, he has 71 carries for 347 yards, 27 receptions for 233 yards and is 5-of-9 passing for 72 yards with six total touchdowns. The Rams must account for him whenever he's on the field.

Wide receivers Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed: Second-year wideouts Olave and Shaheed will challenge a young secondary. Olave (ankle) is expected to return after missing Week 14. The speedy Shaheed is an excellent vertical threat. After an uneven start to his second season, Olave has 22 receptions for 355 yards over his past four games while Shaheed has 10 receptions on 18 deep targets (20 or more yards) for 390 yards and three touchdowns this season.

WHEN THE RAMS ARE ON OFFENSE

Quarterback Matthew Stafford: What version of Stafford shows up — the one who completed less than 60% of his attempts in seven of his 13 starts, or the one who completed 75.8% of his attempts against Washington? The No. 1 overall pick of the 2009 NFL Draft has played his best football of the season the past four weeks but faces a difficult test against an outstanding secondary.

Saints secondary vs. Cooper Kupp, Puca Nacua: The best matchup will be the aforementioned New Orleans secondary against Rams wide receivers Kupp and rookie Nacua. Even without standout corner Marshon Lattimore (ankle), New Orleans is deep at the position with Alontae Taylor, Isaac Yiadom and Paulson Adebo. 

Per RotoWire, the Saints allow the second-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers and are one of five teams to allow fewer than 10 receiving touchdowns to wideouts this season. Per nfeloapp.com, the Rams target their wide receivers at the highest rate in the league (70%).

Running back Kyren Williams: One area the Saints have struggled is in stopping the run, making the matchup against ascending running back Williams one to watch. Over his past five games, Williams has 109 carries for 655 yards. New Orleans held Giants running back Saquon Barkley to nine carries for 14 yards in Week 14 and must bring that same energy to Los Angeles after the defense allowed an average of 169.8 rushing yards per game from Weeks 8-14.

Linebacker Demario Davis: The middle linebacker has shown no signs of slowing in his 12th year in the league. He has matched a career high with 6.5 sacks this season and has 102 tackles, giving him at least 100 tackles in each of his six seasons in New Orleans.