Vikings have to let Marcus Davenport walk in free agency, but they might be stuck with him

The Minnesota Vikings are entering a very crucial offseason and it all starts with free agency in mid-March.

The Vikings have some big decisions to make, with the biggest belonging to four-time Pro Bowl quarterback, Kirk Cousins. His contract is officially up, but he'll still count $28.5 million against the cap if a new deal isn't in place by the time the new league year starts on March 13. 

While Cousins' situation is complicated, the Vikings should have an easier time figuring out to with their disappointing 2023 free agent signing in pass rusher Marcus Davenport.

Vikings have to let Davenport walk unless he is willing to sign a very cheap deal

This was a risky decision the moment pen hit paper, even if the Vikings only gave Davenport a one-year, $13 million deal.

Davenport's long injury history is why he found himself a free agent in 2023 - after his former team, the New Orleans Saints, traded up in the first round to get him back in 2018. He's never played a full season in the NFL and sure enough, he appeared in just four games before being placed on IR and never stepping on the field again.

It was a gamble that quickly blew up in the Vikings' face. Fortunately, superstar Danielle Hunter had one of the best years of his career, but it's easy to sit here and think about what could've been, had Davenport actually played more than just a quarter of the season. 

In all, Davenport finished with 2.0 sacks and seven pressures across 77 pass rush snaps, per Pro Football Focus. His true pass set win rate of 9.7% would've been good for dead last out 50 EDGE rushers with at least 371 pass rush snaps on the year. 

The Vikings just need to let Davenport walk and I think they will. The only way he comes back is via a huge drop in pay on his next deal. And I'm talking, like, no more than $5 million in base pay and no more than $9 million with incentives. Either way - Davenport can't cost more than $5 mil against the cap without it being labeled a bad move. He'll count $6.8 million against the cap if he walks, thanks to the void years attached to last year's deal.

But, in the ultimate team sport, it's not strictly a Davenport-Vikings situation. Two of his teammates could also indirectly play a part in what happens with the former first-rounder.

Futures of D.J. Wonnum, Danielle Hunter, and OL could actually keep Davenport in Minnesota

D.J. Wonnum's health, Danielle Hunter's potential departure, and the fact that seven of the team's 11 offensive linemen are impending free agents could keep Davenport in Minnesota.

It would've been an easy decision to let Davenport walk and re-sign the ascending pass rusher that is Wonnum, but his quad injury complicates things. Post-surgery recovery can take as long as 6-8 months, or even longer like we saw with Jamal Adams. Obviously the Vikings will be up to speed on Wonnum's recovery, but they may have to keep Davenport around, simply as depth. Especially if the Vikings choose not to re-sign Wonnum.

Hunter signing elsewhere is also something the Vikings need to be mindful of. As mentioned earlier, seven of the team's 11 offensive linemen are either an impending unrestricted free agent or restricted free agent and Cousins may still be in the picture in terms of re-signing. 

With all those needs and the contract that would come with Cousins' deal, in particular, the Vikings simply may not have enough resources to keep Hunter. The team has more than $24.6 million in cap space and there are moves, such as extending Justin Jefferson, that can be made to create more room, but we are talking about a premier player playing a premier position, which will create all kinds of competition if Hunter hits the open market. 

And then the Vikings are just simply going to have to either draft offensive linemen or sign them in free agency and that's going to cost money, either way. One of said lineman will likely be Dalton Risner, too, and while he's not going to break the bank - he won't be cheap. Ideally, the Vikings would go into 2024 with at least eight offensive linemen in order to get the chance to have to more roster spots on game day, so that's at least four guys they're going to have to pay in the near future.

In the end, the Vikings may have to settle for what should be an exponentially cheaper player in Davenport, but a player that still has a lot of potential to play well if he can just stay healthy for one season.

Final Prediction

I actually think the Vikings will give Davenport another shot and it'll be on a much cheaper deal, kind of like the $2.5 million deal Jadeveon Clowney signed with the Baltimore Ravens back in August.

It'll be a very low-risk, but high-reward deal and if it works out, the Vikings would get a very nice ROI and not miss out on much if it doesn't work. Pass rushers, especially first-round talents, are highly coveted and Davenport knows one big year can set him up for a nice deal in 2025, much like the projected $10.5 million APY Clowney should receive, this year.

Davenport is definitely at a crossroads, but taking a one-year prove it deal and playing another year under Brian Flores doesn't sound like a bad risk to take.