Week 16 'TNF' touchdown props: Turning to value in the prop market

It's the second-to-last "Thursday Night Football" game of the 2023 NFL season, and we should celebrate with some touchdown props.

We're moving far down the board here for some value spots. Go for some of the more mainstream names if you'd like, we prefer going after plus-odds in spots that make sense. We've got one for each side when the New Orleans Saints visit the Los Angeles Rams, go lighter on these given their long-shot nature.

Jimmy Graham TD (+600 FanDuel)

Listen, Jimmy Graham does not play a lot, but he has a very clear role in this New Orleans offense. Over the past three games, Graham has played just 20 total snaps, fourth among tight ends on the Saints.

However, he has a touchdown in all three games, coming in near the goal line to catch jump ball touchdowns. He has five targets in the past three weeks, four of which have come in the red zone.

The Rams are tied for the second-most touchdowns allowed per game to tight ends, so it certainly seems worth a sprinkle for Graham to keep this thing rolling.

Royce Freeman (+500 Caesars)

Kyren Williams is the clear top back for the Rams, piling up 87 carries in four games since his return from injury, with 27 total red zone looks in that span. That's a truly absurd number, and it helps explain why he's set at -215 to score a touchdown on Thursday.

There's no value on that, so of course we are going to pivot with a small wager on Royce Freeman finding paydirt instead. Freeman has five red zone attempts in this stretch with Williams back, seeing 23 carries in this month stretch.

As minuscule as it is, there is a role here for Freeman as the backup runner, and given New Orleans' biggest vulnerabilities, there's surely a chance he can break off some productive runs here. The Saints are allowing the sixth-most yards per rush this season, with DVOA ranking them among the worst run defenses in the NFL. 

Williams should be set for a big game, and we can only hope to ride that wave with Royce Freeman on "TNF."