Flyers to sign winger to maximum-term, eight-year extension

The Flyers and winger Owen Tippett are “closing in” on a long-term deal, Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman said Friday. Friedman added it will be an eight-year deal carrying an AAV between $6M and $6.5M. Daily Faceoff’s Frank Seravalli reports the total value of the deal will be $49.6M, or a $6.2M AAV.

Tippett came to Philadelphia in March 2022 as the focal piece from the Panthers in the Claude Giroux trade. The 2017 10th overall pick had struggled to get out of the gate after nearly five years in the Florida organization, posting 14 goals and 33 points in 94 games while averaging around 12 minutes per game.

The now-24-year-old was drafted for his speed and shooting ability, as evidenced by his 44 goals in 60 games with the OHL’s Mississauga Steelheads as a 17-year-old. It took a move to the Flyers to make it happen, but those hallmarks of his game have blossomed at the right time.

His first full season in Philadelphia was a success, exploding for 27 goals and 49 points in 77 games on a Flyers offense that finished near the bottom of the league in 2022-23. Through 46 games this year, he’s notched 18 goals and 30 points in 46 games – a 32-goal, 53-point pace over 82 games.

That kind of production, if sustained, will make this contract one of the better value bets in the league at its midpoint. Tippett’s deal will take up 7.1% of the salary cap when it goes into effect, a similar share of the cap to Blues winger Pavel Buchnevich and Flames winger Andrew Mangiapane when they signed mid-term deals with $5.8M cap hits in 2021 and 2022. Both were similar in age to Tippett when signing their deals.

Mangiapane’s production has stuttered in the years following, while Buchnevich is the Blues’ premier offensive talent and posted over a point per game in the last two seasons. Tippett likely ends up somewhere in the middle. If the consistency in his play between this year and last is any indication, he’s on track to churn out totals in the 30-goal, 55-point neighborhood over the life of the contract.

By signing him to a max-term extension now, the Flyers lock Tippett up at a controlled price throughout his most valuable seasons. He’ll be 32 when the deal ends – young enough so that Tippett could sign a lucrative mid-term deal, but old enough that the Flyers would feel comfortable walking away if the demand is too high. The likelihood of Tippett’s production regressing is also much lower than if Philadelphia waited another two or three years to give him a long-term extension.

It’s unlikely Tippett advances much past what he is now – an extremely high-end secondary scoring threat. With the salary cap increasing at its projected rate, though, $6.2M per season works out quite well for that kind of production, especially for a player who’s consistently shouldered top-six minutes since coming to the Flyers. He’s posted strong possession numbers, too, boasting a 50.1% Corsi share (2.4% higher than the team’s share without him on the ice) at even strength since the trade to Philly.

Tippett was destined for RFA status this summer with arbitration rights after completing a two-year, $3M contract. He will be eligible for unrestricted free agency for the first time when his new contract expires in 2032.