Golden Knights vs. Jets Stanley Cup Playoff series preview and pick

Vegas Golden Knights: 1^st in Pacific Division, 111 points

Winnipeg Jets: 4th in Central Division, 95 points

Schedule: (ET)

Date	Game	Time
Tuesday, April 18	1. Winnipeg at Vegas	9:30 p.m. ET
Thursday, April 20	2. Winnipeg at Vegas	10 p.m. ET
Saturday, April 22	3. Vegas at Winnipeg	4 p.m. ET
Monday, April 24	4. Vegas at Winnipeg	9:30 p.m. ET
Thursday, April 27	5. Winnipeg at Vegas*	TBD
Saturday, April 29	6. Vegas at Winnipeg*	TBD
Monday, May 1	7. Winnipeg at Vegas*	TBD

*if necessary

The Skinny

This will be the first time in five years these teams meet in the playoffs.

The Golden Knights and Jets clashed for the first time in the postseason during the Golden Knights’ inaugural campaign, 2017-18. After an astonishing 109-point debut regular season, they defeated the Los Angeles Kings and San Jose Sharks.

The Jets and Golden Knights met in the third round after Winnipeg beat both the Minnesota Wild and Nashville Predators in the first two rounds of the playoffs. The Golden Knights dispatched the Jets in five games en route to a Stanley Cup Final loss to the Washington Capitals.

The Golden Knights were an upstart team then. Now they are the favorite to beat the Jets for the second time.

Head to Head

Vegas: 3-0-0

Winnipeg: 0-2-1

The Golden Knights took all three regular season contests against the Jets, outscoring them 13-8. This is certainly an encouraging stat for Golden Knights’ fans, but it’s important to keep in mind that the two teams haven’t met since Vegas’ 6-5 victory in Winnipeg in December and the other two meetings took place in October, when both teams were still figuring things out.

Adin Hill was in net for the Golden Knights for all three games against the Jets this year. He posted a .907 SV% in those games. Hill was remarkable in the first two meetings between the teams, letting in three goals over that span. However, he let in five during their final meeting.

Top Five Scorers

Vegas

Jack Eichel, 66 points
Chandler Stephenson, 65 points
Jonathan Marchessault, 57 points
Reilly Smith, 56 points
Alex Pietrangelo, 54 points

Winnipeg

Kyle Connor, 80 points
Josh Morrissey, 76 points
Mark Scheifele, 68 points
Pierre-Luc Dubois, 63 points
Blake Wheeler, 55 points

X-Factor

Connor Hellebuyck is still one of the best goalies in the NHL and had an underrated season in Winnipeg this year. Make no mistake: this Jets team lives and dies on the back of Hellebuyck. In 64 games played this year, he earned a 37-25-2 record with a 2.49 GAA and .920 SV%. If he catches fire in the playoffs, Vegas might not have anyone among its seemingly endless goalie options that can go toe-to-toe with the Jets’ netminder.

Hellebuyck has a .921 SV% in 35 career playoff games. He’s in the prime of his career and will be hungry to replicate or even surpass the success he had with Winnipeg during their 2018 conference final run.

Offense

The Golden Knights have the edge in this category, ranking 14th in the NHL. While they don’t have any game-breaking talent among the likes of Connor McDavid or Nikita Kucherov, they have a lot of good to very good players on their roster. However, there are certainly questions about the Golden Knights’ ability to score.

Vegas has only three 20-goal scorers on the team and their leading scorer has 28 goals, which doesn’t exactly inspire confidence in the current high-scoring NHL.

The Jets have better scoring upfront with Mark Scheifele pacing the team with 42 goals on the year. Kyle Connor added 31 and Pierre-Luc Dubois chipped in 27. Josh Morrissey and Blake Wheeler have 16 apiece. Nino Niederreiter has six since joining the team post-trade deadline.

Both teams rank in the bottom half of the NHL in power-play efficiency this season.

The Jets rank 21st in the NHL in scoring and will likely be relying heavily on Hellebuyck in net.

Defense

Unlike offense, defense is an area that both Vegas and Winnipeg are strong in. Headlining the Jets’ back end is Norris Trophy hopeful Josh Morrissey, who scored 76 points this year. They have built a nice D-corps surrounding him with Dylan DeMelo, Neal Pionk, Nate Schmidt and Brendan Dillon all contributing. The Jets have a nice mix of offensively minded and defensively minded players sprinkled into this group. They have the league’s seventh-ranked penalty kill at 82.4 percent, well ahead of Vegas’ 19th’ ranked kill.

Vegas has one of the better defense corps in the NHL. Alex Pietrangelo has had a strong season and Shea Theodore, when healthy, has been one of the best defensemen in the NHL. Nic Hague and Brayden McNabb have been playing solid hockey and have come in handy for the Golden Knights especially because they missed a combined one game this season. It will be a challenge depth-wise as long as Zach Whitecloud is out with an injury. He has been practicing in full leading up to Game 1, however.

Goaltending

Vegas and Winnipeg have two very different goaltending situations. The Jets have a set in stone with Hellebuyck as the starter and David Rittich in a low-pressure role as the backup. 

The Golden Knights don’t have that luxury. They have used five different goalies this year, with varying results. Logan Thompson has solidified himself as an NHL starter and was overall the best goalie in Vegas this year.

However, Thompson has been injured since March and may not play in the first round of the playoffs. The Golden Knights’ have other options, including trade deadline acquisition Jonathan Quick and Laurent Brossoit, who was phenomenal in the 11 games he played for the Golden Knights this year.

Hellebuyck will be in net for Winnipeg on Tuesday, but either Brossoit or Quick could play for the Golden Knights. Based on his stellar finish to the regular season, Brossoit likely gets the nod for Game 1 against his former team.

Injuries

The Jets have a few injuries to worry about going into the playoffs. Kevin Stenlund is out with a lower-body injury. Cole Perfetti has been out for over a month with an upper-body injury and it is unknown whether he will play in the first round. Ehlers is also out with an upper-body injury but looks likely to suit up.

Vegas will be missing Thompson, Adin Hill, Nolan Patrick, Robin Lehner and William Carrier with various injuries. Additionally, Brett Howden did not play in the April 13 game against the Seattle Kraken for personal reasons. Captain and top right winger Mark Stone has been injured since January but is trending toward playing in Game 1, giving the Golden Knights a huge lift if he’s ailing back can hold up.

Intangibles

This will be an interesting series to watch because the Golden Knights have the edge on paper, but with so many injuries, and uncertainty even around the “healthy” returnees like Stone, the odds may actually tilt in the Jets’ favor.

The Golden Knights have won seven playoff series since their inaugural season, while the Jets have won three since 2017-18. If the Golden Knights turn to Quick at some point, we could witness a potentially epic Quick/Hellebuyck goalie duel, the long-time No. 1 American goalie in the NHL versus the current top American goalie. Could Quick turn back the clock and flash his old Conn Smythe Trophy form if called upon?

Series Prediction

The Golden Knights are the better team in almost every category except goaltending, which of course is the most important category of all in the playoffs. I predict Vegas to come out of the gate hard but Winnipeg will grind them out and ultimately come out on top with Connor Hellebuyck stealing the show.

Jets in seven games