NHL best bets: Predictions and expert picks for Wednesday 5/1

Kings vs. Oilers

Wednesday, May 1, 10 p.m. ET, ESPN
Under 6.5 (Bet365)

The Kings have been one of the best defensive sides in the league over the past two seasons, which was the greatest argument as to why they could make life tough for the Oilers in this series.

They finished with an xGA/60 mark of 2.93 in the regular season — the fourth-best number in the league. That mark is actually still worse than we saw in 2022-23 when they owned a 2.83 xGA/60 number.

The Kings played arguably the best defensive game we've seen from any team this entire postseason in Game 4. They allowed only 1.01 xGA and four high-danger chances in even-strength play.

However, the Oilers' historically dominant power-play broke through for the game's only goal on its only opportunity in the game. The Oilers' power-play unit has tortured L.A. in this series, clicking at 53.3%. It will likely continue to dominate when given chance.

That's a good argument as to why tonight's total is a little high, though.

It's unlikely we see a lot of penalties like we saw in Game 4. Refs become more timid when making potential series-deciding calls in elimination games, and players are very careful to avoid taking any undisciplined penalties.

If this game doesn't feature several power-play goals, our chances of cashing a bet on the under 6.5 (-125) are quite high.

The Oilers also deserve a lot of credit for how well they've suppressed the Kings offense in this series. They've allowed only 2.67 xGA/60 throughout the four games.

Now that goaltender Stuart Skinner's play has stabilized, their dominant defensive play has been on display.

A total of 6.5 looks too high for this matchup, as I believe it's more likely we see a game closer to Game 4 than the chaos from the first three games.

bet365 has the best number to go under 6.5 at -125, and I would play anything better than -135.

Pick: Under 6.5 (-125 · Play to -135)

Connor McDavid

to Win Conn Smythe Trophy

With Thatcher Demko on the sidelines, the Canucks become a significantly easier matchup for the Oilers in Round 2 — if the Canucks can get through the Predators, that is. Nashville is favored to win Game 6 on home ice.

Whether it's the Predators or Canucks, it's clear that the Oilers will have the softest second-round matchup of any team if they can close out the Kings.

That makes me interested in targeting Edmonton to make a deep run because I don't believe the current numbers accurately reflect the fact that the Oilers are going to be close to -190 in Round 2.

Connor McDavid has put up a ridiculous 10 points in the first four games of the series. He's opened up a significant edge over Leon Draisaitl (+3500), who's the only other Oiler who will have a chance to steal the Conn Smythe Trophy from McDavid.

Looking at the teams coming out of the East, there's even a realistic possibility that McDavid could lose in this year's Stanley Cup Final and still win the award.

The game's best player has been true to form to start this year's playoffs. If the Oilers make a deep run, it will be because he continues to be wildly productive.

At +750, there's still value in backing McDavid to win the Conn Smythe as a way to invest in the Oilers.

And at +3500, I wouldn't hate putting a smaller bet on Draisaitl, either. His number is that long in part because Zach Hyman (+2500) is sandwiched in between.

Hyman is more of a complementary piece, though, and barring an absurd goal-scoring output, it's doubtful he ever wins a vote over McDavid or Draisaitl.

Pick: Connor McDavid to Win Conn Smythe Trophy (+750)