NHL bets: Tonight's a Connor kind of night

Yesterday's targets split, and we need to break this week open in the NHL. I've settled on two studs again to back, and truly the only concern I have on these spots is they're going to be too popular today. With that disclaimer noted, we proceed anyway into a pair of SOG props on the ice.

.75u: Kyle Connor 4+ shots (+162 FanDuel)

Winnipeg should manage to generate some offense here; Nashville quite consistently surrenders 30+ shots to its opponents. The Preds also come into this one allowing the third-most shots per game to wings in the league across the last 10 games.

That puts Kyle Connor on my radar, but I likely would have settled on him regardless. He's tied for second on the Jets in 5v5 shots over their last five at home, and he's coming alive a bit here, finishing with four SOG in back-to-back games.

At home, he's over his 2.5 line in six of 10 and has gone for 4+ just four times in that stretch, so why gravitate toward him at this number?

That reason is quite simple: the man loves Nashville. He's averaging 6.1 SOG/game across his last nine meetings with Nashville, finishing with 4+ seven times and 6+ shots five times.

As I mentioned in the intro, my biggest concern here by far is that the entire world is going to be on Connor due to his history.

I think, however, that his recent offensive uptick in 5v5 shot play and Nashville's weakness toward wings is enough to propel this pick forward anyway.

1u: Connor McDavid over 3.5 SOG (-110 DraftKings)

Edmonton is in the most inviting spot of the night hosting Washington, and I expect plenty of goals and shots to come from the Oilers end.

There are a few things drawing me to the NHL's most talented player. For starters, Washington is allowing the sixth-most shots per game to centers over the last 10 games, which benefits McDavid here as Edmonton's top-line center.

Then we look at what has been my north star lately: 5v5 shot data. McDavid is second on the team over the last five at home with 15 shots on 5v5 play, a strong number here when you consider we need just four shots tonight. McDavid has gone over this line in 11 of his last 15 at home, averaging 4.5 SOG/game in that stretch.

The kicker to me is a quick look back on Washington's recent games on the road. In their last two as the visitors, the Caps have allowed a ridiculous 24 shots to opposing team's top lines. In just two games.

As the engine of Edmonton's top line, I'm going to follow that for McDavid tonight, and I don't hate looking at him up at 5+ shots either.