Top 10 Vezina Trophy candidates for 2023-24

You won’t find a more random and fickle position in hockey, if not all of sports, than goaltender in the year 2023. Gone are the days when Patrick Roy, Martin Brodeur and Dominik Hasek hoarded 13 Vezina Trophies in 19 years. In this era of timeshares, load management and techniques such as the reverse VH taking a greater toll than ever on the body, goaltender performance has never been less predictable year to year, even among the elite.

That’s what makes the Vezina such a fun NHL Award to speculate on – and bet on – at the moment. Linus Ullmark had never earned a single All-Star vote, let alone a Vezina vote, nor had he even started more than half a team’s games in a season before his epic 2022-23 in which he took home the Triple Crown, leading the league in wins (40), goals-against average (1.89) and save percentage (.938). He was the sixth consecutive first-time winner of the Vezina. No goalie has repeated as the Vezina winner since Brodeur in 2006-07 and 2007-08. Tim Thomas and Sergei Bobrovsky are the only netminders to win it more than once in the past 15 years.

So no matter how good we believe Ullmark or Andrei Vasilevskiy or Connor Hellebuyck is, it’s borderline guesswork when trying to forecast the 2023-24 Vezina winner. That’s a good thing. We can make it educated guesswork and find some home-run value when examining the current sportsbook odds.

Here are my top 10 Vezina candidates for this season, with current Betano odds included in brackets.

1. Ilya Sorokin, New York Islanders (+600)

Over the past two seasons, Sorokin has saved more goals above average per 60 than any other NHL netminder. Ranking right behind him over that span: Ullmark and Igor Shesterkin, a.k.a the past two Vezina winners. Sorokin is arguably the best goaltender on the planet right now, and he’s fresh off a runner-up finish in the Vezina vote. The only thing previously holding him back from hardware was volume, but the Islanders upped his workload from 1A to true No. 1 last season, giving him 60 starts. He’s the safest pick to have the best rate stats in the league and should earn a decent number of wins competing for a team with playoff aspirations. It’s the perfect Vezina cocktail.

2. Jake Oettinger, Dallas Stars (+1200)

‘Otter’ has the makeup of a perennial All-Star who could smash every Stars franchise goaltending record by the time his career ends. He’s big, poised, athletic and intelligent. He’s maturing into his prime at 24 and has upped his save percentage every season, from .911 to .914 to .919. Important information for Vezina voters, a.k.a. the NHL’s general managers: Oettinger plays for a top Stanley Cup contender in the Dallas Stars and is thus a near shoo-in to rank among the league leaders in wins. You or I may call wins an overrated stat, but the Vezina voters disagree: Of the past 20 winners, 14 have finished top-three in the league in victories. If we base our prediction on that history, there’s a 70 percent chance this year’s Vezina winner plays for an elite team.

3. Igor Shesterkin, New York Rangers (+600)

The game’s quickest goaltender was sensational in his Vezina campaign of 2021-22 and “only” very good last season. In terms of raw ability, he belongs in the elite class, right up there with Sorokin, and Shesterkin also checks the box of playing for a contender in the Rangers. The only factor working against Shesterkin is volume. He has yet to reach 60 starts in a season. His athletic, reflex-oriented game taxes the body and might continue to cap his workload. Then again, with the shaky Jonathan Quick signed on as the Blueshirts’ No. 2 option, Shesterkin is a decent bet to set a new career high in starts. That makes him one of the smartest Vezina picks.

4. Andrei Vasilevskiy, Tampa Bay Lightning (+600)

Prepare for Vasy’s revenge. Yes, he hasn’t quite matched his heights of a few years back, and his team has regressed from its dynastic state. But Vasilevskiy is the most decorated goaltender of his generation. He led the league in wins five years in a row before last season. He has finished between first and sixth in each of the past six Vezina votes. And perhaps more importantly: he’s rested. Vasilevskiy’s season ended in April for the first time since 2019. On a Lightning team that still has so many of its core stars aboard, Vasilevskiy, still only 29, is positioned for an epic rebound season.

5. Alexandar Georgiev, Colorado Avalanche (+2900)

I surprised myself placing Georgiev so high. But hear me out. In his first season as Colorado’s starter, he tied Ullmark for the league lead in wins; ranked second in shutouts; and ranked ninth in SV%. Georgiev also graded fourth in GSAA/60, placing him in the elite tier. Only two goalies started more games to boot. So we have a workhorse, who performed at a true star level last season, playing on a Stanley Cup contender with multiple elite defensive players in front of him. Georgiev finished a ho-hum seventh in the vote last season, but a second consecutive big year would attract more voter attention. He’s a great bet relative to his value.

6. Connor Hellebuyck, Winnipeg Jets (+600)

Hellebuyck is the busiest goaltender of his era, period, having led the NHL in shots faced in four straight seasons before 2022-23. He has four top-five Vezina finishes in the past six seasons, including a 2019-20 win and two runner-up finishes. Consistently playing on Jets teams that have hung him out to dry, Hellebuyck has overcome difficult workloads. The dam may break this season, however, as the Jets appear to have weakened themselves on paper, with the pieces coming in to replace Pierre-Luc Dubois and Blake Wheeler not appearing to measure up. A down year for the Jets could suppress Hellebuyck’s win total and turn off voters. He’ll also be playing with the distraction of a contract year and possibly dogged by trade rumors approaching the deadline if the Jets trend toward seller status. Hellebuyck’s Vezina odds have more downside than normal this season.

7. Juuse Saros, Nashville Predators (+700)

Saros, the pint-sized wonder, is undoubtedly one of the best goaltenders on Earth, repeatedly elevating mediocre Preds teams to playoff races in which they should have no business competing. But he finds himself in a similar situation to Hellebuyck’s, playing on a mediocre team that doesn’t have particularly strong playoff odds. The last puck-stopper to win the Vezina on a non-playoff team was Sergei Bobrovsky in 2013. No one else has done so in the past 92 years.

8. Linus Ullmark, Boston Bruins (+1400)

If you’re familiar with the exemplary work of hockey historian Paul Pidutti, you’ll know Ullmark had a season for the ages in 2022-23. It wasn’t just “give the man the Vezina” good. It was the “single best performance by a goalie this century” good. Based on the simple reality of his effort being unrepeatable, there was already some reason to be bearish on Ullmark’s odds for 2023-24. But then we factor in the departure of the greatest defensive forward ever, Bruins No. 1 center Patrice Bergeron. And No. 2 center David Krejci. And top-four defenseman Dmitry Orlov. And support players like Tyler Bertuzzi, Taylor Hall, Nick Foligno, Garnet Hathaway…I can stop there. You get the idea. The Bruins are a completely different team than the juggernaut that won an NHL-record 65 games last season. Not only is Ullmark’s individual greatness unsustainable, but he should have a weaker team in front of him – and even at his peak, he has one of the smaller workloads among NHL starters because he has such a quality 1B partner in Jeremy Swayman. The deck couldn’t be stacked more against Ullmark this time around.

9. Filip Gustavsson, Minnesota Wild (+2400)

On a per-game basis last season, Gustavsson was the second-best goaltender in the game. Only Ullmark bested him in GAA, SV% and GSAA/60. As an ascending talent coming off a breakout year, Gustavsson makes for an intriguing longshot Vezina pick. On the other hand, his sample size of success remains relatively small. He has started 60 career games over his first three NHL seasons. He has a future Hall of Famer backing him up in Marc-Andre Fleury, who should maintain a healthy workload. With Gustavsson’s volume ceiling capped, he’d have to duplicate his otherworldly 2022-23 numbers to earn serious Vezina consideration. He could make things interesting if he can get 50 starts, though.

10. Adin Hill, Vegas Golden Knights (+7400)

The threat of Logan Thompson is real, no doubt. But when a goaltender leads you to a Stanley Cup and posts a .932 SV% in the process, then earns a new contract with a $4.9M AAV, it’s pretty clear that the goaltender is the starter. What might 50 games of Adin Hill look like? Even before the dominant postseason run, he had established himself as a decidedly above-average netminder, posting a .913 SV% across his past four seasons. He’s never been put to the test in a true bellcow role but has also given little reason to doubt his ability to date. If he can hold off Thompson and grow the 1A assignment into a true lion’s share, Hill could put together an All-Star – and Vezina–caliber season.

Other 2023-24 Vezina Trophy candidates to consider: Thatcher Demko, Tristan Jarry, Sergei Bobrovsky, Joonas Korpisalo, Ilya Samsonov